June 25, 2024

Trump has 8 paths to victory in 2024. Biden has 2.

Presuming that both Arizona and Georgia return to the GOP fold, and given Trump’s current Real Clear Politics aggregate leads in both those states — head-to-head +4.8, five-way +6.2 and +5.0/6.4, respectively — and the fact Trump ha...

June 19, 2024

The biggest loser from Trump’s trial is...RFK Jr.

I have touted my “Ten Day Rule,” which appears to be gaining traction: “No matter if there’s a seemingly game-changing political event, there’s no need to get too enthusiastic or downcast about it until after ten polling...

June 11, 2024

Trump’s VP: The magnificent 7, rated

Media are reporting that V.P. vetting paperwork has been sent out to the following people: 1. Doug Burgum 2. Marco Rubio 3. J.D. Vance 4. Tim Scott 5. Byron Donalds 6. Elise Stefanik 7. Ben Carson Accepting that the media has ...

June 7, 2024

Will Nebraska seal Trump’s election in 2024?

Current polling, whether head-to-head with Biden or, more especially, the polls in the 7 “battleground states,” points to an Electoral College win for Trump that looks remarkably like his 2016 victory. Trump leads Biden in the Real Cle...

May 31, 2024

3rd-party candidates support declining. What does it mean for Biden?

In the five-way aggregate of all current polls, which includes the independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.; the Green Party candidate, Jill Stein; and independent candidate Cornell West, Kennedy’s result peaked (so far) at 16.7% on 11/20/2...

April 11, 2024

The glass ceiling breaks silently

Flying completely under the radar, and perhaps a sign as to how much things have changed since Hillary was the presidential candidate and there was an enormous focus on the “glass ceiling,” there are now no less than four women vying for ...

April 4, 2024

How will blacks vote in November?

Having switched from a three-month aggregation of blacks’ “voting intentions” subset of polls, because some were outdated, to now monthly, the number of such polls will of course be less, and open to the criticism that such lower nu...

February 5, 2024

A black running mate for Trump would transform the GOP’s image from white exclusivity to American working class

In Theodore H. White’s monumental The Making of the President 1964 he canvasses the racial unrest of that election year. He makes the point that the black riots were not actually interracial rioting, but for the most part involved black destruc...

January 20, 2024

Under the radar: Data show big shift in voters’ favorable perception of Trump

While a 2020 presidential rematch appears almost inevitable, a majority of voters express disapproval for either Biden (61%) or Trump (53%) running again, according to the latest HarrisX poll.  This marks a significant shift from an August ...

January 13, 2024

Poll Analysis: A Surge in Black Voter Support for Trump

Two prominent psephologists cautioned that some high polling results for Donald Trump among Black voters were "quirky," given the smaller sample sizes in individual polls, and emphasized the importance of aggregating such polls, ten as a mi...

July 7, 2022

GOP freakouts and the Ten-Day Rule

Richard Baris said it succinctly: "Last month, it was 'Ukraine.'  Week before Roe, it was 'Gun Safety.'  We call them 'News Cycle DEMs.'"  This is of course perfectly true, but the ...

April 21, 2022

The 2020 Loss -- A Blessing In Disguise?

Let’s be totally frank: if on election night 2020 a total of just over 40,000 votes across Georgia, Wisconsin, and Arizona had gone for President Donald Trump instead of Biden it would have eventuated in a complete disaster for both Trump ...