We were warned by the late, great historian of Islam, Bernard Lewis.  For the Islamic Republic, mutual assured destruction is less a deterrent than “an inducement.”  The Iranian theocracy will gladly sleep with virgins for eternity in exchange for Israel’s destruction, from the river to the sea, as the filthy ditty goes.  But not until Obama did the wish become an imminent reality.  October 7 is meaningless without a look back at how we got here. 

From the overthrow of the Shah in 1979 onward, it was grasped by all, Democrats and Republicans, that the Iranian mantra of Death to America meant exactly that: a clear and present threat to our country.  Sanctions were biting and deep, and the Iranian people were eager to rise against tyrannical, fundamentalist leadership. 

But then enters the One, the thrill-up-the-leg light-emitter, who negotiates the misnamed Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which is not joint, comprehensive, or a plan of action. 

With the passage of time, the purpose of the JCPOA is clear.  In exchange for nothing, Obama prospectively freed Iran from sanctions, committed to fund the terrorist regime with billions, and green-lighted their development of nuclear weapons.  The geopolitical goal was to realign U.S. policy to an ascendant Iran, sacrificing Israel in the process.

One moment captures it all.  Early in his administration, Obama is deliberately photographed sitting in the Oval Office, speaking with Netanyahu, feet up on the Resolute Desk, soles out for the camera.  From time immemorial, a shoe is the means to show intense disrespect.  Cue Khrushchev famously brandishing his shoe at his delegate desk in the U.N.  The message of the White House photo, disputed at the time, but now beyond doubt, is the declaration by Obama that to achieve his goal, America will, as necessary, kick a non-compliant Israel and step on its throat, with Benjamin Netanyahu, not Iran, as enemy number one.

Thirty-five years after the Shah’s fall, and a mere nine years since the JCPOA, Obama’s Mideast aims, implemented on instruction by President Biden, have largely been realized, save one — the refusal of Israel, led by Netanyahu, to participate in its own destruction.  Little wonder that Obama sidestepped Congress by refusing to execute a formal treaty agreement with Iran.  In fact, widespread reporting to the contrary, the JCPOA is not an agreement, but rather a side-by-side pretense between the U.S. and Iran, complete with side deals, undisclosed to this day.  Nor is it even an executed understanding as Iran never in fact signed the whatever-it-is.

In 2018, President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the agreement.  Yet that did not stop Biden early in his administration from reviving hopes for the JCPOA, which in practice meant the release of more than $10 billion in blood money and leagues more in sanctions relief and renewed oil revenues, to fund attacks on Israel and speed Iran’s development of nuclear warheads on ballistic missiles.  As always, hapless Joe, guided by Obama’s man, Rob Malley, now under security review for mishandling classified information, received nothing but Iran’s unbroken promise to destroy the Great Satan, after first eliminating the Little Satan.

The linchpin of the agreement has always been compliance monitoring of Iran’s nuclear program by the International Atomic Energy Agency.  To the surprise of absolutely no one, Iran declined, preferring instead to move as fast as possible to develop weapons-grade uranium, or WGU.  Frighteningly, after the U.S. ambassador to the IAEA in 2023 stated that the Iranian program “has no credible peaceful purpose,” it is now assessed, as of September 2024, that Iran has WGU to build nine nuclear warheads in one month and fifteen in five months.

This more or less brings matters up to date and identifies the single event that matters.  Will Israel take action to destroy Iran’s nuclear capability, and will it work?  Only Israel can assess whether it is too late and whether it can succeed without U.S. deep bunker-busting capabilities.  But for absolutely certain, time has run out for Israel to act.

In this regard, Iran’s recent ballistic attack on Israel has been broadly misinterpreted as a failure, with Biden calling for a limited “proportionate” response.  Aside from willfully twisting the law of proportionately, which in truth means the limitation of collateral damage when striking a military target, Iran was in fact sending Israel a terrifying message.  In the most recent  attack, Israel did not and cannot block all Iranian ballistic missiles.  Only one nuclear-tipped missile needs to strike, in a twelve-minute window.  The hidden message to U.S. is the ability to hit us domestically as well.

Here then lies the true meaning of October 7.  The world stands at crisis, more dangerous than the Cuban missile crisis.  At this juncture, not only is Biden mentally unfit to hold the office of the presidency, but he gave perhaps the most perilous answer of his term when he replied, “The answer is no” as to whether Israel should hit Iran’s nuclear sites.  Harris has gone still farther in refusing to affirm Israel under Netanyahu as a “real close ally.”

Underlying all is Obama, who went before the U.N. General Assembly to famously promote a knowing, expedient lie, one that stands for all the lies that lead us to today: “Iran’s Supreme Leader has issued a fatwa against the development of nuclear weapons.”

By deepest contrast, and to his great credit, Trump unreservedly states that Israel must act now against Iran’s nuclear capability.  “Hit the nuclear first, and worry about the rest later.” 

Rabbinic tradition teaches that all sermons, no matter how gloomy, should end in hope. 

In a month’s time, we will have a new president.  If it is Harris, Israel’s existence will be at risk, with the U.S. as Iran’s ultimate target.  If it is Trump, the world opens to great possibilities.

With Hamas and Hezb’allah seriously degraded, there never will be a better opportunity to dismantle the threat posed by a nuclear Iran, committed to suicidal action.  End the theocracy, and Iran will flourish, with no need for nuclear weapons.  Likewise Lebanon, which has not existed as an independent country for more than a generation.  Eliminate Hezb’allah and Iran’s reign of terror, and Lebanon can again become a country beckoning to the world.  Most significantly, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are eager and willing to rebuild Gaza, without Hamas, and expand the Abraham Accords into a long-lasting regional peace. 

The world is united against Israel, but Israel will act.  Like it or not, the world for its own sake must hope that Israel succeeds.

Image: Gage Skidmore via Flickr, CC BY-SA 2.0.