As a conservative writer, I come into contact with a lot of people, many who identify themselves as Republican and conservative.  Having been at this for years, I have detected a marked change in how many former Russia haters have altered their perception of Russia and especially Putin, some even seeing him as desirable.  Public opinion on Putin's first moves into Europe in 2008 was subdued and misunderstood.  The lack of international pushback was a consequence of a massive Russian effort to influence public opinion through information warfare, with the West not acknowledging the ramifications in an attempt to appease Putin.  This first engagement became the template for Putin's continued empire-building since.

In 2008, during the Obama/Biden administration, Russia, along with its non-nation-state proxies, self-proclaimed South Ossetia and Abkhazia, invaded independent Georgia on the pretense that Georgia was committing genocide against the Russian-speaking South Ossetia region.  In reality, tensions had been building since Putin's elevation to President in 2000, which featured a worldview that sees Russia as the eventual only legitimate superpower.  Russia eventually withdrew, but the pattern for future invasions was set.  Claims that ethnic Russians are being massacred and that NATO's ambitions were to invade and destroy Russia had no basis in fact.  The International Court of Justice did sanction Russia for "grave human rights abuses," but little more.  This invasion permanently displaced tens of thousands.

Notably, Europe made a lot of noise but did not send forces to intervene.  The fear of a Russian invasion of Europe is still real and palpable, with many Europeans recalling their fear of a Russian attack through the Fulda Gap that remains to this day.  The problem, as President Trump accurately stated, was massive underinvestment in European defense that diverted money to support the social welfare states of Europe.  This is the source of much American anxiety for many who decry America, spending its blood and treasure for the EU that lived essentially rent-free under our protection.

In 2013, Russian-installed President Viktor Yanukovych vetoed a wildly popular deal for Ukraine to begin to integrate with the European Union.  The Ukrainian people massively favored looking westward, and a mini-civil war resulted in Yanukovych fleeing to Russia.  Russia reacted by invading Crimea and then used "Little Green Men" to commence an insurgency in Eastern Ukraine.  Shortly after that, the "rebels" in the Donbas region asked for Russian "help," and Russia invaded.  The West made a lot of noise and sent blankets, MREs, and little else under Obama and Biden's tenure.

Europe and America blustered, but without American force behind it, Putin scored the toehold in Ukraine he desired.  By 2022, with Biden now President, the calculation was made that Ukraine was ripe for the picking, and the rest is history.   

Too many of my friends think Ukraine is an isolated situation unworthy of our interest, and if Russia wins, it will end Putin's ambitions.  That's not true.  Putin is currently involved in destabilizing Armenia, Lithuania, Poland, Serbia, and Moldova, all having seen destabilizing efforts by Putin in the last year.  Notably, Poland and Lithuania are NATO members and are furiously building their defenses against an assumed Russian invasion.

In conversations with both moderate and hardline Republicans, I've discovered real passion amongst many.  Emotions are not a substitute for fact-based logic regarding America's role in shaping the international space.

As you would expect, most conservatives believe in the right to self-determination but possess a fractured view of Russia, with many believing Russia is a free country vs. evidence to the contrary.  Putin has become a mythical creature to many conservatives, with many envying his strongman style of leadership, which makes it seem as if Putin is strong and admirable when the reality is quite different.  Russia continues to operate its political Gulags, as the now-dead Alexi Navaliya is testament to.

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, cronyism, crime, and corruption-plagued all the old communist countries, including Ukraine.  President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ran on a platform as a reformer and has made great strides in creating a market-style economy, with his people responding gallantly; he is not a strongman leader.  The U.S. continually vets the progress made by Ukraine.

Without assistance from the rest of the world, Ukraine will become the next domino to fall.  This will not be the end of it.  President Biden has restricted the weaponry used and where it can be employed.  Biden has micromanaged the war in Ukraine in the same manner as in Israel.  A war that should have taken 90 days is approaching nine months in Israel because we no longer have the will to win.  This strategy births future wars and increases the danger to us all.  Never fight a war you aren't prepared to win.

Too many don't understand geopolitics.  Russian disinformation, bolstered by an America First mindset, mirrors the general mood of the country the day before Pearl Harbor.  With hindsight, we know how wrong that was.  Any intelligent person who thinks Russia is free should think twice.  Europe is slowly reacting to American public and private opinion.  Europe must step up to the plate and become true allies and equal partners in our collective defense to preserve democracy.  We can't be isolationists in a global world of connective tissues that bind us all economically, politically, and militarily. 

I join my fellow conservatives in saying the free ride is over.  We must absorb the reality that Europe can fall to Russia should we turn our backs.  This would be catastrophic to America in so many ways that I can't begin to list them all.  America must demand that Europe fully pay their way, and Trump's cold-water treatment is necessary.  In the meantime, Americans must become realistic that we have an interconnected global economy, even as we rightfully should place our self-interest front and center.

Allan J. Feifer is an author, businessman, thinker, and strategist.  Read more about Allan, his background, and his ideas to create a better tomorrow at www.1plus1equals2.com

Image: AT via Magic Studio