U.S. President Joe Biden claimed that people have “every reason” to believe that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is dragging out the war in Gaza to remain in power, the Times of Israel columnist Jacob Magid wrote on June 4.

Asked in an interview with Time magazine published Tuesday, June 4, 2024, whether he accepts the allegation made by some that Netanyahu is prolonging the war for his own political self-preservation, Biden responded, “I’m not going to comment on that.”

But he subsequently added, “There is every reason for people to draw that conclusion.”

Numerous opponents of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claim that he is prolonging the war in Gaza to maintain his power.

Anyone who claims that the Israeli prime minister is prolonging the war in Gaza is, by this assertion, in effect saying that he knows how long Israel's war on terrorists in Gaza should last.

But who can know how long this Israeli war should last? What knowledge, what experience does one need to have to know exactly how long Israel's war in Gaza should last, and thus to claim that Israel's prime minister is willfully prolonging this war? Since a super-authority, a super-intelligence that knows everything about the correct duration of wars is unlikely to exist, let's try to estimate the possible duration of this war by means of a comparison with another war on terrorists. 

The U.S. and allied war against ISIS terrorists in the Iraqi city of Mosul was fought from March 24, 2016 to July 10, 2017. The battle for Mosul was conducted by the Iraqi government army with the participation of the U.S., U.K., France, Germany, U.A.E. and Turkey, who covered the Iraqi offensive with their air forces.

The allies won a complete victory over ISIS terrorists, driving them out of Mosul. The territory and population of Mosul is roughly half the size of the territory and population of Gaza.

From this perspective alone, the war in Gaza should have lasted twice as long as the war in Mosul. The war in Mosul lasted a year and three months. By that metric, the war in Gaza should have lasted two years and six months. At this point, Israel's war in Gaza has been going on for eight months.

But Mosul didn't have 500 kilometers of underground tunnels like Gaza. ISIS terrorists didn't have the amazing underground maneuvering capabilities, troop movements, and number of ambushes that they had in Gaza.

So, the effect of the tunnels should further increase the duration of the war.  ISIS terrorists have not had as much military and financial aid as Hamas terrorists. Consequently, such a large amount of aid to Hamas terrorists should further lengthen the duration of the Gaza war. But there is another factor in lengthening the duration of the Gaza war, as the Israeli army has been much more careful in dealing with civilians in Gaza than the Iraqi army and its allies have been in Mosul.

In March 2017, U.S. aircraft launched a massive airstrike on the western suburbs of Mosul, killing hundreds of civilians. A spokeswoman for Amnesty International said that “U.S.-led coalition troops, using tactics of total destruction of buildings without regard for civilian casualties.” According to her, “heavy losses” of civilians suggest that the coalition “blatantly violates” the norms of international humanitarian law. She said such “disproportionate and indiscriminate attacks” could amount to war crimes.

In July 2017, Hoshyar Zebari, a minister in the Iraqi government, said that more than 40,000 civilians were killed in the assault on Mosul. On the side of the Iraqi army in Mosul was the military aviation of six countries led by the United States, which violated all the norms of humane treatment of civilians, the fulfillment of which these six countries demand from Israel. To summarize, the war in Gaza should continue for many years.

However, the situation is even more complex. The war in Gaza is not an isolated war. On Oct. 7, 2023, Israel's war against the “Islamic Axis” or “Axis of Resistance” countries began. “Axis of Resistance” refers to an unofficial anti-Israel and anti-Western political and military coalition led by Iran. It includes various terrorist groups in Judea, Samaria, Gaza, Syria and Lebanon, as well as Iraqi Shiite militias and the Houthis in Yemen. The war in Gaza is related to the military actions of these terrorists. Perhaps it is the same war. Could Netanyahu be delaying the war against the “axis of resistance” forces? Those who claim that Prime Minister Netanyahu is deliberately prolonging the war assume that all the evil in Israel and the country's problems are centered in one man. This conspiracy thinking has no basis for this claim other than a political desire to oust the prime minister from office.  

French political scientist Pierre-André Taghieff wrote that the simplification at the center of the conspiracy theory provides a misleading illumination of the political field. Explanation by means of a single and simple factor, such as the concentration of the main evil in the personality of the prime minister or president, is mythologizing.

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