Back in the 1950s, there was the Red Scare. Up until a couple of months ago, there was the “Kennedy Scare.” Corporate media was spinning that Robert Kennedy Jr. might swipe more votes from Donald Trump than creaky Joe Biden this autumn. That was never going to happen.

RFK Jr. is Donald Trump’s best chance to win the White House. A three-candidate race hurts Joe Biden. Okay, the state of nation matters, but with the electorate strongly polarized, the game is less about persuasion and mobilization than securing ballots. Independents count, but many are partisan leaners, so they aren’t truly independent-minded. Securing your side’s leaners is key in battleground states.   

Why is Kennedy a factor? Elections and campaign analyst Jim Ellis (Ellis Insight) wrote, April 2:

[snip] while President Biden and former President Trump consistently find their approval ratings upside down in double digit point margins that are routinely closer to 20 rather than 10, Mr. Kennedy is always viewed as the more popular figure. Though his favorability index is only in slightly positive territory for the most part, generally from three to five percentage points, his standing is far superior to that of the two Presidents. [Italics added] 

Ellis continued that national polls are indicators of candidate strengths and weaknesses, not election outcomes. Outcomes are state affairs.

Based on trends, Ellis declared:

[snip] we have several conclusions that appear to be correct. First, President Biden is improving his position against the field. Second, Mr. Trump appears in a long term stagnant position, and third, Mr. Kennedy is gaining enough support to be a factor in tipping the race from one candidate to the other.  

If the analysis is correct, if Trump has hit his ceiling among voters, then eroding support among Biden’s base is critical. Of course, with plenty of the election season ahead, no one can possibly foresee everything that will impact the outcome.

Barring crazy developments, though, Kennedy isn’t winning the presidency. The nation is riveted on the Biden-Trump brouhaha. When has an independent or third-party candidate won the presidency, anyway? That makes Kennedy a spoiler, regardless his disavowal. Disaffected Democrats -- mostly progressives -- are his most likely voter pool. Fringe lefties Jill Stein and Cornell West are smaller-scale spoilers; their vote tallies ice the cake. But it’s Kennedy who has the visibility, dollars, and operational skill to peel away Democrats and their leaners.

Not all Democrat voters will hold their nose and vote Biden. Despite the media spin, real concerns linger about Biden’s age-related health issues. His pushing radical climate change measures and his handling of the economy aren’t winners with auto workers, for instance. Trump hatred and blind partisanship will keep most Democrats in Biden’s corner, but not all. Certainly not all independents who lean Democrat. Since battleground election margins are expected to be tight, “not all” is vital.    

To make a difference in five, maybe six, swing states, a small percentage of voters need to break Kennedy’s way to give Trump the win. Recent polling suggesting that a growing number of young and minority voters (notably Blacks and Hispanics) are falling away from Biden. It’s too early to tell. If that becomes a trend into September-October, then optimism is warranted. Until then, narrow is the path to victory.

And, yes -- a thousand times over -- election rigging is the Democrats’ stock-in-trade. That certainly factors in, so Trump and Kennedy are at disadvantages. But with so many moving parts, who knows if Democrats are a lock to succeed with election fixes?

Critical to Kennedy is his securing ballot placement in swing states. His campaign’s efforts are underway. To help achieve ballot placement, Kennedy just nominated a nobody as his running mate -- well, a nobody to most voters.

Nicole Shannon is filthy rich and a no-bones progressive. As CNN noted, having a veep candidate is necessary to qualify for some state ballots. Kennedy could have selected a sober centrist for that. The Shannon pick signals where the Kennedy campaign is headed: leftward ho.

Shannon has been an on-and-off donor to Kennedy’s campaign. Now, she’ll open her checkbook wide to lend muscle to gain ballot access. She has standing in Silicon Valley and among corporate elite. As the New York Post reported, not only does Shannon have her wealth to draw on, she helps Kennedy’s campaign because she “retains deep ties to wealthy donors who could give his longshot campaign a boost.”

Bottom line, if Kennedy thought the best fishing was to his right, he’d choose a running mate to his right. Tulsi Gabbard claims she turned down RFK. Jr.’s offer to be his veep. Gabbard is no conservative. Skittish Republicans need to take note. Democrats are taking note. They’re working to undermine Kennedy’s efforts.          

No denying that Kennedy’s positions on some major issues appeal to conservatives. He receives checkmarks for his stance on the border, government corruption, civil liberties, the working and middle classes, Big Pharma, growing corporate fascism, and ending forever wars. That’s an impressive list. But his agenda is seeded with poison pills.

The biggest poison pill is Kennedy’s buy-in on the manmade climate change delusion -- like, all in. Pursue a radical climate change agenda to its logical end and, Lord knows, not only would you kill off much of humanity, but survivors would be scratching out existences. It’s a world made for Klaus Schwab.  

What about abortion, the slavery issue of our times? Nope. Kennedy’s Catholicism simply doesn’t inform his position on killing babies in wombs. Kennedy told Reuters (March 20) that “he thought every abortion was a ‘tragedy’ but that it should be a woman's right ‘throughout the pregnancy.’” That’s Joe Biden all over again.

Did Kennedy speak out against the Trans Day of Visibility observance, which very coincidentally coincided with Easter Sunday, the holiest day on the Christian calendar? Kennedy stayed out of the fight, though in a townhall meeting for News Nation (June 29, 2023), he declared his foursquare support for LGBTQ rights.  

Kennedy is a cafeteria Catholic and a “cafeteria centrist.” Cultural issues are crucial to the nation’s future, as much as inflation, civil liberties, and war and peace. America is unraveling because of ongoing cultural debauchment. Progressivism is sliding toward a full capture by nihilism. RFK Jr.’s brand of progressivism won’t stop the slide.

Trump understands the advantages of Kennedy’s independent run. Trump’s game is to relentlessly contrast with Biden. His approach to Kennedy is simple enough: Help drive votes to him among disaffected Democrats and progressives. Sure, that’s easier said than done. Trump can’t look as if he’s trying to push votes Kennedy’s way. It’s shrewder for conservative dark money groups to do the work. Democrats have had no hesitancy interfering in GOP primaries. They want to boost Republicans whom they deem weaker. Why not help Kennedy take votes from Biden? 

Perhaps RFK Jr. believes he has a shot at the presidency in 2024, but his eye may be on a different prize. Kennedy may want to deny Biden reelection as a first step in shaking loose the establishment’s hold on the Democrat Party. The fight then is about who shapes the party and leads Democrats moving forward. For Kennedy, 2024 may only be a prelude to 2028. In the meantime, Kennedy is Biden’s bane and Trump’s boon. You’ve got to love it.

J. Robert Smith can be found at Gab, @JRobertSmith. He blogs occasionally at Flyover. He’s returned to X. His handle there is @JRobertSmith1.

Image: Gage Skidmore