From the moment Joe Biden illegitimately took office, whispers about whether he would run again in 2024 began.  Biden himself even said the quiet part out loud by saying California governor Gavin Newsom could soon “have the job I’m looking for.”  Most Democrat party elites have remained steadfast in their support for Biden verbally despite his infamous gaffes becoming even more common than they were when he first took office.

Recently however, something changed.

Special Counsel Robert Hur’s report on Biden’s mishandling of classified documents was damning, even for those previously aware of Biden’s cognitive deficiencies.  It claimed that Biden’s memory is “significantly limited,” as evidenced by his inability to recall noteworthy dates such as when he served as vice president and the death of his son.  As a result, Hillary Clinton pivoted from her previously unequivocal support of Biden by stating she believes that his age is an issue, which signaled a shift from the usually united party apparatus and furthered the Biden replacement theory.

If that happens, talking points have surely already been issued.  Democrats, media, and the vocal anti-Trump minority of the Republican party — which includes the cast of bitter primary candidates Trump soundly defeated — are prepared to admit that Trump would have beaten Biden, but only because it will make them appear impartial when they say he will lose to the new Democrat nominee.  Regardless of how this plays out, one thing remains true: it doesn’t matter who the Democrat nominee will be.

Many now believe that there is a person or group controlling Joe Biden, and with good reason.  If an illegal shadow government is reigning, the logical expectation would be for its administrators to choose the next puppet to carry out their agenda, meaning a vote for whomever the Democrats nominate is a vote for a continuation of this agenda.  While Biden’s poor record makes him vulnerable, we shouldn’t expect any other Democrat to be viewed very differently.  In fact, all of the most rumored replacements, Michelle Obama, Gavin Newsom, and Kamala Harris, have their own unique way of attaining unpopularity.

While Michelle Obama would be their ideal choice, so Barack would no longer have to lurk in the shadows, since 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue would once again become his residence, the Obama popularity has been on a steady downtrend since 2008.  Barack became the only president to ever win re-election by a smaller popular and Electoral College vote margin than he did previously.  His coattails were also not long enough to propel Hillary Clinton to victory on his way out of office in 2016, due in large part to the estimated 13 percent of Obama voters who switched to Trump.  And 2020 was, well, 2020.  With a staggering 78 percent of Americans believing we are heading in the wrong direction, there is no reason to believe that the spouse of the person widely believed to be responsible for this destruction would perform well in a general election, not to mention that most of the children whose school lunches were ruined because of Michelle are of voting age now.

While Michelle has the name recognition, Gavin Newsom is the one most indiscreetly positioning himself to replace Biden.  However, he governs the state that has become a case study for what happens under radical-left rule.  Unsurprisingly, California has experienced a population exodus under his reign, demonstrating a rejection of the leftist agenda even among those living in blue states.  Further, an absolute necessity for a successful campaign is securing hometown support, yet Newsom had to fight a recall campaign earlier in his term.  If a candidate is unpopular among voters who know him best, it is a bad omen when trying to persuade new voters to support him.

Another Californian, Kamala Harris is also mentioned in these hypothetical conversations, mostly due to her being “next in line” as opposed to her electability.  In fact, she is arguably the least popular rumored replacement.  Prior to taking office, she was rated the most liberal senator, which the California exodus has proven is very unpopular.  Now a “star” of the Biden-Harris show, she wears the stain of many of that administration’s failures, specifically for her shortcomings as the “border czar.”  Her incessant cackling and elementary-level form of communicating have also contributed to her approval rating being even lower than Biden’s.

Since all of these rumored replacements would merely serve as a continuation of the current agenda, we must assess the perception of the party instead of the nominee.  All indications show cracks in the foundation, especially for a party that rarely displays any sign of disunity.

A fascinating trend has emerged over the past year.  Numerous members of pop culture who historically leaned staunchly left or down the middle have voiced a discontentment with Biden and, even more shocking, an openness to Trump.  Nobody ever imagined Trump-haters like Snoop Dogg, Michael Rappaport, Bill Maher, Cardi B, and Charlamagne Tha God doing anything that could be used to aid Trump or hurt Biden.  Yet recently, Maher, Cardi B, and Charlamagne have all criticized Biden, while Snoop Dogg and Rappaport extended an unprovoked olive branch to Trump.  Other high-profile former Democrat voters such as Elon Musk and Joe Rogan also stated their preference for Trump over Biden.  The “average” American always feels the flaws in government before those with unworldly riches do.  These figures openly voicing discontentment means that this sentiment reached the average Democrat and independent long ago and is now prevalent in elite circles.

Additionally, third-party candidates siphoning Democrat votes will remain an obstacle, regardless of who the Democrat nominee is.  All three declared “third-party” candidates — Robert F. Kennedy. Jr.; Jill Stein; and Cornell West — will overwhelmingly siphon votes from the Democrat, as they all advocate for leftist causes.  Polling including all three of these candidates in addition to Trump and Biden typically shows them accumulating a total of 10–15 percent of support, demonstrating a hunger from left-leaning voters to move away from the Democrat party.  Unsurprisingly, Trump wins in all of these polls, which is telling, since all will likely be on the ballot come November.

Beyond this election being solely a referendum on the left, it is also coming at a time of historic, record-breaking support for a candidate who already set voting records.  Trump has statistically proven to be the most popular president in U.S. history by setting the Republican general election vote record in 2016, then setting the sitting president vote record in 2020.  He is currently breaking all non-incumbent primary voting records and very well could surpass 100 million votes for the first time in American history.  And if recent polling is even mildly accurate, Trump is poised to make historic inroads with typically non-Republican circles.

Trump’s original “deplorables” have remained firmly behind him throughout his time in politics as he continues to bring along new supporters.  So if another radical leftist becomes the Democrat nominee, there is no reason to expect them to be able to separate themselves from the Democrat party’s reputation, overcome left-leaning third-party bids, and stop Trump’s expanding coalition.

At this point, only election fraud can defeat Trump.  But if anyone can draw turnout that’s “too big to rig,” or that can “outvote the fraud,” it’s Donald Trump.  In the event that Biden is in fact dispatched for an alternative, keep that in mind.

Matt Kane graduated from Stony Brook University with a Bachelor’s degree in political science.  His work has been posted by President Trump and published by RealClearPolitics.  Follow on Truth Social: @MattKane.  X: @MattKaneUSA

Image: Gavin Newsom.  Credit: Gage Skidmore via Flickr, CC BY-SA 2.0.