After the fourth Republican Presidential debate with only five Republican Presidential candidates competing for the nomination, the 2024 Presidential election cycle is in full swing. Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy is doing well in the debates and former ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis have loyal supporters. Both DeSantis and Ramaswamy are strong supporters of Israel. They also believe that the U.S. should end military aid to Ukraine. While Ramaswamy, Haley, and DeSantis are popular, they will likely not be able to defeat former Republican president Donald Trump. Many Republicans believe that the 2020 presidential election was stolen and that Trump deserves a second term. Republicans credit Trump for the record low unemployment rates and low gas prices before the spread of COVID-19.

On the other side of the aisle, many Democrats support Biden because of how he handles the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas war. Additionally, many Democrats support Biden simply because he is not Trump.

The country has become increasingly divided since 2000. Republican presidential nominees are able to win most southern states while Democratic presidential nominees win most Northern states. It is likely that the 2024 presidential election will be as close as 2000 and 2020.

There are a few swing states that end up determining the outcome of an election. In recent history, Pennsylvania and Georgia have become swing states. In every presidential election since 1972 Pennsylvania has voted for the president except in 2000 and 2004. Biden was elected in 2020 because he won swing states such as Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin, and even Georgia. Biden became the first Democrat to win Georgia since Bill Clinton won the state in 1992.

For the past several weeks, I have been working with a conservative group. This group polls voters to determine their views on Biden, whether they will be voting in 2024, and whether they will be voting in person or by absentee ballot.

Pennsylvania and Georgia will likely be key states in determining the outcome of the 2024 election. In 2016 voters from these states helped elect Donald Trump. In 2020, these same states helped elect Joe Biden to the presidency.

Having been to both states I was able to witness the political division in the country. In Philadelphia and Atlanta and Kennesaw, Georgia, there is a mix of staunch Republicans and Democrats. There appeared to be a heavier Democratic presence in Philadelphia. The majority of Pennsylvanians were staunch Democrats even if they admitted they did not like the direction the country was going. There was also a significant number of voters who refused to do the survey. 

The political division was apparent in both states because a few Democrats ripped up my literature in front of me. A man in Pennsylvania threatened to call the cops, claiming I was littering by leaving my literature at his front door. Another man asked me who gave me permission to canvass in his neighborhood. Several Republican voters said that Biden is a moron who is destroying this country. They believed that Trump had to win to election to save our nation. 

While most Democrats said they will be voting for Biden again they are not happy with the condition of the economy. They believe that the economy is not good, but they believe it would be worse if Trump were president. While the majority of voters said they would support the nominee of their party there were several outliers. In both states, there were Democrats who opposed Biden and Republicans who opposed Trump. There were slightly more Republicans who opposed Trump than Democrats who opposed Biden. Republicans who are not supporting Trump are doing so because they do not like his rhetoric or his personality. Democrats who are not supporting Biden say that they do not like his handling of the economy.

Under Biden’s presidency, inflation rates have hit their highest level in over 40 years. Mortgage payments on a new home have risen 90% under Biden’s presidency. Mortgage interest rates are at their highest levels in over 22 years and house prices are at record highs. Gas prices have also significantly increased under Biden’s presidency. In 2023 the average annual gasoline price per gallon was $3.47 while in 2022 the average annual gas price per gallon was $4.06. These prices are a major increase compared to the roughly $2.50 annual gas price per gallon under the Trump presidency.

If Trump wants to win in 2024, he should change his rhetoric to be less divisive and promise to improve the economy. He should continue to emphasize his administration's record low unemployment rates and record low mortgage rates. He should campaign on improving the economy and closing the border. In regard to foreign affairs, he should continue to be a strong supporter of Israel in its war against Hamas and work toward ending the Russia-Ukraine war.

The last time a president ran against the same political opponent two times in a row and won was in 1896 and 1900. President William McKinley ran against William Jennings Bryan twice and defeated him both times. Biden may end up doing what Mckinley did and defeat his political opponent twice in a row. However, Trump may end up winning two non-consecutive terms and defeating Biden like President Grover Clevland did. The fact that both candidates are running again proves that our nation is very divided.

Because many voters are apathetic in regard to Trump and Biden it is possible that a third-party candidate could perform rather well in 2024. In 1992 Ross Perot earned 18.9% of the popular vote helping Arkansas governor Bill Clinton defeat President George H.W. Bush. Similarly, third-party candidate Arkansas Governor George Wallace earned 13.5% of the popular vote and won five states in the 1968 election.

Due to history being an indication of what is to come Georgia and Pennsylvania will almost certainly play a decisive role in who wins this election. Trump should continue to visit these states to campaign on issues that these voters care about.

Whoever ends up winning the 2024 election the outcome will likely be very close. There is also a possibility that the party who loses will claim that the other party cheated. This election is an indication of how divided our nation is.

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