The Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. presidential campaign is off to a unique start.  Despite bearing a famous Democrat name, he has chosen to run as an independent due to the legal “rigging” of the Democrat primary.  He has gained some likability among conservatives for his stance on two issues: vaccine safety and his pledge to take on the Deep State.  If you are going to check just two boxes, exposing the Deep State corruption and vaccine risks are certainly worthy issues.  However, RFK Jr. is far from conservative, a Republican, or even a satisfactory alternative to an America First candidate for voters seeking one, nor is he trying to be. 

Kennedy himself would admit he is ideologically liberal on most issues.  This is why, despite claims by both Kennedy and a small portion of the “right” claiming he would take more votes from Trump, he will most likely take significantly more from Biden.  To understand why, a brief look into the history of the most significant Independent presidential campaigns in U.S. history is crucial before digging into present issues.

There have been two independent campaigns since 1900 that parallel how 2024 appears to be shaping up: 1912 and 1992.  George Wallace’s 1968 campaign was another significant third-party run, but Kennedy’s campaign won’t feature any stance so drastically different from the two major-party candidates to separate himself as Wallace’s did by opposing desegregation, which resonated strongly with the southeast United States and separated him from Richard Nixon and Hubert Humphrey. 

So 1912 and 1992 stand as the closest points of reference for 2024.  Each of the independent candidates in those years entered the race with a following or fame, as Kennedy did this year.  In 1912, former Republican president Theodore Roosevelt challenged incumbent Republican president William Taft.  Roosevelt ran as a member of the Progressive Party after controversially losing the Republican nomination to Taft.  While they went on to combine for 50 percent of the popular vote, voters of the two were split 27-23%, paving the way for Democrat nominee Woodrow Wilson to win the presidency with just 41% of the vote. 

In 1992, billionaire businessman Ross Perot’s Reform Party run played a key role in the ouster of Republican president George H.W. Bush.  The Reform Party aligned closely ideologically with the Republican party, and enthusiasm for Perot came from him railing against the economy under Bush, which led many Republican voters to turn to Perot, splitting the vote and resulting in a Clinton presidency despite Clinton receiving just 43% of the vote. 

These two elections prove that in three-man races, independent candidacies spoil the chances of the candidate they most closely align with, while the candidate alone on the other end of the political spectrum reaps the benefits of his opponent’s voter fissure.  Combining this background with Kennedy aligning with the far left on so many hot-button issues makes it doubtful that a greater number of independents or Trump voters will flock to Kennedy than Biden voters. 

Kennedy supports student loan forgiveness and affirmative action, both of which have become increasingly unpopular after the Biden administration’s prioritization of DIE over reason, merit, and logic since taking power.  Extreme climate initiatives have also continued to turn off the masses, so Kennedy’s support of fracking bans, increased government climate regulations, and keeping the U.S. in the Paris Climate Accord, and his previous calls for the death penalty for corporate climate change skeptics, place him squarely in the extreme leftist environmental category as opposed to a moderate one. 

Despite stating his support for all amendments of the Constitution, he has categorized the NRA as a terrorist organization — an unfavorable statement, since Americans are increasingly concerned with attacks on the 2nd Amendment in light of global government overreach during the COVID-19 pandemic.  And while he now supports a border wall, he recently stated that he stopped considering the wall a racist policy only six months ago.  He also opposes screening the ideologies of immigrants seeking entry into the United States even after recent events have re-emphasized how present the threat of radical Islamic terrorism is. 

Lastly, Kennedy supports Medicare for all, a major pillar of the Obama era.  Obama’s popularity has been on the downtrend ever since his first election, as evidenced by the 2010 midterm referendum, where Democrats lost the House as well as six Senate seats, in addition to him losing 4 million votes from 2008 to 2012 and his inability to push Hillary Clinton over the 2016 finish line.  Additionally, it is estimated that roughly 11–15% of Obama voters migrated to vote for Trump beginning in 2016.  Considering that many dissatisfied with Biden view his presidency as Obama’s third term, it is unlikely that voters who defected from Obama to Trump would jump to Kennedy after he recently stated that he does not regret supporting Obama, even as the repercussions of Obama’s reign are just now rearing their ugly head. 

Kennedy even faces obstacles in the two areas that made him likable to non-Leftists.  Vaccines now trail far behind the economy, inflation, illegal immigration, election integrity, and foreign affairs in terms of issues of importance for independent or Republican voters, meaning that his unfavorables in the above areas will likely outweigh his favorables in this demographic.  Conversely, vaccine skepticism is no longer near the top of issues of importance for Democrat voters, either, meaning that his anti-vaccine stance won’t turn away as many Democrats as it previously might have.  Regarding the Deep State, Trump cannot be supplanted as the premier anti-Deep State candidate following his four arrests and recent pledge to serve prison time for his cause if necessary.  This neutralizes Kennedy’s appeal here as well. 

There is also the “Trump attack” factor.  Just months ago, following his re-election, Ron DeSantis was polling behind Trump by a respectable 12 points, with many clamoring for a Trump-DeSantis ticket.  But after DeSantis challenged Trump for the nomination, Trump has exposed DeSantis’s flaws so ferociously that he not only has no chance of winning the 2024 nomination — due to him now trailing by 50 points — but may have also ruined his future presidential aspirations as well.  When Trump inevitably begins to spotlight Kennedy’s flaws, his influence on voters will make Kennedy even less popular. 

Presently, most of the available polling supports the above claims as Trump’s margin over Biden increases across the board, particularly in key swing states when infusing Kennedy into a Trump-Biden rematch.  Due to Trump being the only candidate who has presided over American prosperity and global peace, voters don’t appear to be looking for an alternative.

Still, Kennedy is viewed favorably because he comes across as genuine, unlike most other high-profile Democrats in government.  Most get the sense that he firmly believes that his ideas and proposals will make America a better place.  Even Trump, who is never shy to make his true feelings known, believes this, so he should be given the respect and credit he deserves for that.  While Kennedy possesses a known American political name and much more nuanced and polished rhetoric compared to other Democrats, that’s basically the extent of his appeal to the center-right.  How he will impact the election if he remains in the race until the end remains to be seen, but if history is any indication, Biden, beware. 

Matt Kane graduated from Stony Brook University with a bachelor’s degree in political science.  His work has been posted by President Trump and published by RealClearPolitics.  Follow on Truth Social: @MattKane.  X: @MattKaneUSA.

Image: Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.  Credit: Gage Skidmore via Flickr, CC BY-SA 2.0.