What dominates the mass media is often fleeting importance for the enduring political landscape. Nevertheless, some events can harbinger momentous changes despite their initial ordinary nature. A particularly telling example was the initial shift of small number of White Southern Democrats into the Republican Party in 1964, a little-noticed event that foretold the shift of nearly all Southern Whites into the GOP. Such shifts are tectonic insofar as they may eventually fundamentally change the political landscape.

We may now be experiencing a tectonic shift of major magnitude, namely the exodus of Jews from liberalism. The triggering event is the Hamas savagery on Oct 7^th in Israel and, of equal importance, the support of many Americans for this barbarism. These two events are a double wakeup call for many American Jews -- who could imagine anybody celebrating the beheading of babies, nor thousands of Americans, often at elite universities, denouncing Israel as an apartheid, genocidal colonial regime?

Anti-Semitism per se is not the issue. Such hostility is part of American life but, thankfully, it usually involve isolated incidents such as defacing synagogues or assaulting Jews dressed in Hasidic garb. The very worst is shootings Jews at prayer, typically by mentally ill loners.

The recent events are fundamentally different in both scope and fury, and, of the utmost significance, they stir long-forgotten dark memories about Jewish life. Millions of American Jews familiar with their troubled history have long insisted “It can’t happen here.” Almost overnight, at least for many, this has become, “It is unlikely to happen here.”  This creeping doubt might seem only a slight linguistic shift, but the very idea of a possibility, however remote, has deep, inescapable emotional consequences. Jewish students at Cornell have now received death threats solely due to their religion. Such incidents set off reactions long buried in the mind’s deepest recesses, and nearly every Jew in America has tales to tell. My mother just barely escaped Poland in 1938, but most of her family did not. This dark “baggage” is commonplace.

One highly-publicized response to events has been the threats of billionaire Jews such as Ronald Lauder and Leslie Wexner to stop funding their alma maters over campus anti-Semitism. Thousands of other Jews have also undoubtedly closed their checkbooks in disgust. But, as I have argued elsewhere, the anti-Israel vitriol will not cease. Billions in donations will be raised elsewhere, and no school can end the hatred of Jews. Nevertheless, these rich Jews are sending a message whose deeper unease is far more consequential than a closed checkbook; eyes are opening.   

Less visible in this tectonic shift is a shocker -- Jews are buying guns. Lots. A recent NBC news story had the headline "'Not Safe Anywhere Now:' American Jews Are Flocking to Gun Training Classes.” Now Jews in cities with large Jewish populations were suddenly inundating gun stores and shooting ranges, all saying, “I never believed I would do this.” The gun-enthusiast website Reload told of a Jewish gun training organization that recently received about 638 calls on its hotline about joining over a five-day period while for the entire past years, the figure was 950. Nor is packing heat limited to cities with large Jewish populations. In West Texas, an area hardly at risk from Hamas, Jews are suddenly arming themselves and practicing their marksmanship.

A recent conversation with a Jewish doctor adds depth to this transformation. The subject of Jews and gun ownership surfaced almost haphazardly, and he told me that he, like other liberals, had always been anti-gun.  Now, everything is different -- he currently owns four, including a shotgun (“you can’t miss”) and he and his wife are willing to use them to protect the family. He resides in an affluent suburb and explained that when BLM took to the streets, reality shifted. Recent Hamas barbarism only confirmed his decision. He also told me that he had just attended a dinner of fellow liberal Jews, all of whom were anti-gun, and now half owned guns and regularly practice shooting.  

Those unfamiliar with the political views of Jews may not fully grasp the shift. Guns were not previously on the agenda to combat anti-Semitism. The first line of defense always prioritized educating Americans about the Holocaust, improving society to eliminate what bred hate, and being good, generous members of the community. Jewish organizations famously gave dinners to honor Christians who worked for improved inter-faith relationships. Jews donated millions to help blacks and helped found the NAACP.. If anything, Jews saw guns as threat to civil society. Now, buying a gun is not just adding one more item to defending against anti-Semitism; it is an admission that the “old way of thinking” no longer applies. And many Jews will do the once unthinkable: admit this new reality in public.

How will this play out? Conceivably, not much if Hamas is crushed and the campuses return to normal. But, like the first Southern Whites voting for the GOP, the tectonic plates may be shifting. This is particularly likely as the number of orthodox Jews, who are overwhelmingly politically conservative replace liberal secular Jews who tend to have small families or are childless altogether. Just look at Israel, where the ultra-religious are now major political players thanks to their high birth-rate.

Uncertainties aside, the likely outcome will be Jews moving rightwards.  Almost certainly Jews will lose their enthusiasm for open borders given that millions of new arrivals will likely be Muslims. Jews can see what has happened in Europe as large numbers of Muslims enter European countries -- anti-Jewish violence increases. They can also see this at home as Muslim immigrants gain an electoral foothold in Minnesota and Michigan (see “the Squad )”

Many Jews will also now look askance at the feel-good multiculturalism that dominates American education from kindergarten to the universities that they once favored. If it worked as advertised to quell hate at its source, why do all the young people call for the abolishing Israel? A new, more accurate view is that preaching the “we are all brothers” gospel is camouflaged cultural Marxism that celebrates “the oppressed” while Jews, being White and affluent, are the oppressor and must be eliminated by “decolonization.” Jews thrive in western civilization; their enemies hate it, and much of contemporary education, top to bottom, hates western civilization.

Third, Jews may become uneasy about the long-term Black-Jewish alliance built around a shared liberal agenda. Anti-Semitism has long had a presence among blacks,  and the recent BLM celebration of Hamas confirms the worst fears of many Jews. Perhaps it is time to put some distance in that relationship.

More generally, recent events may bring the end of knee-jerk liberalism among Jews. The shift away from the Left that began in Israel decades ago may have finally arrived in the U.S. This exodus is particularly likely as the Democratic Party increasingly embraces defunding the police, ending cash bail, hostility to meritocracy, celebrating every sexual proclivity imaginable, a contempt for traditional morality and all else anathema to most Jews. When today’s American Jews look at Israel, they see that, in the final analysis, endless talk and good intentions are insufficient; better to have a gun and know how to use it. And Jews are good learners.

Image: Bird Eye