One would risk being disgusted if one saw politics, justice, and one’s dinner in the making. 

– Nicolas de Chamfort (1741–1794)

Barely able to conceal their disdain, the invited guests squeezed through the sea of MAGA caps and blue Trump flags filling the hallway on their way to the registration table.  Once handed their credentials, they could escape the red-shirted throng outside into the civilized safety of the meeting room, where their respectable colleagues awaited them, to transact the business of the day.  It was clear that the pro-Trump crowd outside would remain outside, their presence not welcome within the assembly room, their opinions less so.

So commenced the hastily convened meeting of the California Republican Party (CRP or CAGOP) Executive Committee in Irvine on Saturday, July 29, 2023.  The stated reason for this meeting was to discuss and approve a bylaw amendment to bring CRP rules for the 2024 Presidential Primary into compliance with Republican National Committee (RNC) rules.  The unstated reason was to change the presidential delegate allocation for the California primary such that it would be more difficult for any one candidate (think Donald Trump) to walk away with all the delegates at stake.  The executive committee understood. The Trump supporters outside understood and weren’t having it.  Regardless of the sentiment outside, those inside the room would do their duty and rubber stamp the foreordained decision of those at the top. Trump must be stopped.

In California, presidential delegates to the national convention have historically been awarded on a “winner-take-all” by congressional district basis.  Whoever gets more primary votes than any other candidate within a given congressional district gets all three delegates assigned to that district.  Additionally, ten at-large delegates are awarded to the candidate receiving the most votes statewide.  However, the RNC’s Rule 16(c)(2) states:

Any presidential primary, caucus, convention, or other process to elect, select, allocate, or bind delegates to the national convention that occurs prior to March 15 in the year in which the national convention is held shall provide for the allocation of delegates on a proportional basis.

In California, the presidential primary for 2024 is on March 5, Super Tuesday.  Therefore, the reasoning goes, California must change its rules (before the October 1st deadline set by the RNC) and switch from a winner-take-all to a proportional model.  If that is not done, California potentially stands to lose fifty percent of her delegates resulting in a reduced role in determining the Republican nominee for president.  According to CAGOP leadership, by bringing the allocation formula in line with RNC requirements, “California Republicans can help determine our Party’s 2024 Presidential nominee and, ultimately, the future of our nation.”  Considering this ominous portent, perhaps California losing half its delegates wouldn’t be so bad after all, at least not for the rest of us.

For an example of how this might work in practice and to gain some insight into the possible motivations behind the proposed change, imagine a scenario where, in each congressional district as well as statewide, the California primary results are such that Donald Trump’s share is 44%, the second-place candidate gets 30%, and all other candidates split the remaining 26%.  Under the prior rules, Trump would have had all of California’s delegates at the National Convention and the other candidates would have had none.  With the same hypothetical results under the new rule adopted July 29th (although there is some ambiguity about the exact formula), it could generally be expected to result in Donald Trump receiving only 44% of the total delegates.  Whoever comes in second would get 30% of the delegates.  The remaining 26% of the delegates would be awarded to the remaining delegate(s) in proportion to their total statewide vote percentages.  This particular hypothetical would leave Trump with only 73 delegates while the runner-up would get about 50.  (It could be even worse due to built-in uncertainties regarding how delegates actually get assigned out of each district to each candidate on a proportional basis – providing further possibility for shenanigans at the national convention.)  Though Trump could still take all of the delegates if he gets more than fifty percent statewide, it nonetheless gives insight into the machinations of the never-Trumpers and their never-ending quest to find some way to prevent another Trump presidency.  It also goes a long way in explaining the outrage of the MAGA crowd that was locked out of the proceedings of the day.

Just in case any rebellious America First types had any thoughts of doing something about all this, well, they thought of that, too.  The July 29th date for adopting the new allocation formula was selected to prevent any possibility of challenging it at the California Republican Party Fall Convention, September 29th through October 1st in Anaheim. Any challenge would have had to have been formally filed more than 60 days prior to the Convention, i.e. the same weekend that the new rule was adopted in Irvine.  The deck was stacked from the start.

Image: Free image, Pixabay license, no attribution required.