By 2024, Barack Obama’s Marxist-infused Democrat Party will have held America hostage for 12 out of 16 years.  This nation cannot survive if the Democrats are in control for another 4-8 years with what will become an irreversible stranglehold on the federal bureaucracy and judiciary (including the Supreme Court).  If the Republicans do not win the presidency and Congress in 2024, this nation may well have passed the point of no return.

To paraphrase James Carville from 1992: it’s the general election, stupid.  Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis and all those running for the nomination, but above all the Republican primary voters, must keep that in mind over the next 12-15 months.

Currently the Republican primary voters are solely focused on meaningless polls that  show Donald Trump running roughshod over Ron DeSantis and nine others who have declared themselves as candidates.  On the other hand,  in the swing states that will determine the winner in November of 2024, equally meaningless polls reveal DeSantis easily beating Biden.

Polls fifteen months from the general election are nothing more than a snapshot of the sentiment of the groups surveyed at the time of polls themselves.   However, as the shadow of Donald Trump has loomed over both the 2020 presidential and 2022 mid-terms, an analysis of the voting electorate from the exit polling data gathered after both elections is a more meaningful predictor of 2024.

Exit polls, like every other type of survey, are subject to margins of error and a certain level of bias.  Unlike pre-election polls, the voters are interviewed upon leaving their polling places.  The primary variables are the veracity of the respondents and the choosing of representative precincts to poll throughout the nation.  Historically, the results have been generally accurate indicators of the sentiment of the voters, thus eliminating any impact from election fraud or manipulation. The rise of mass mail-in voting is an imponderable factor in assessing these results, however.

The highlights of the 2020 exit polling are the following:

• By party identification: Democrats (who represented 37% of voters) chose Biden by 94-5%.  Republicans (36%) similarly chose Trump 94-6%.  The independents (26%) who opted for Biden by 54 to 41% were the swing voters that affected the outcome of the election.
• Even more telling is the vote by age groups.  Among voters aged 18-45, Biden defeated Trump by 14 percentage points 56-42%.  Among all other age groups Trump defeated Biden by just 2 percentage points 51-49%.
• Among suburban voters, a key demographic which represents 51% of voters, Biden won 50-48%.  Additionally, women (52% of voters) chose Biden 57-42% while Trump won among men 53-45%. 
• Despite a monumental effort by Trump to make inroads into the minority populations, Biden won 87% of the Blacks, 65% of the Hispanics, and 61% of the Asians.  
• 50% of respondents said they were concerned or scared if Trump were to be re-elected and voted accordingly.

Mid-Term elections are considered to be a referendum on whoever is in the White House and their party.   In late October of 2022, Biden’s approval rating had sunk to a dismal 39% due to rampant inflation, covid vaccine mandates, unmitigated chaos at the southern border, dangerously incoherent foreign policy, and his obvious mental decline and incompetence.   The mid-terms, therefore, were predicted to be an electoral landslide for the Republicans,

Per the exit polls, an unsurprising 32% of voters said their vote was solely “to oppose Joe Biden.”   But unexpectedly and for the first time in exit polling history, a significant percentage of respondents claimed they voted in opposition to someone who was not in office or a declared candidate.  An astounding 28% of voters said their vote was solely “to oppose Donald Trump” even though he had been out office for two years and had not announced his candidacy for president.  This unprecedented opposition would also affect those candidates endorsed by Trump that were running in close toss-up elections.   

This exit polling result suggests that Trump’s dominance over the Republican Party made the 2022 mid-terms, in the minds of many voters, almost as much about a former president as it was about a failed president and the party in power.

The highlights of the 2022 exit poll delineate the dismal performance of the Republican candidates when virtually everyone was predicting the Republicans would win anywhere from 25-40 House races (won 9) and capture 2-4 seats in the Senate (lost 1 seat):

• Democrats (who represented 33% of voters) and Republicans (36%) each chose their respective party candidates by a 96-3% margin.  The independents (31%) picked Democrat candidates by a 49-47% margin.
• Women (52% of voters) chose the Democrats 53-45% while men opted Republican 56-43%. 
• By age groups, those 18-45 voted 56-42% for the Democrat candidates and all other age groups went Republican 54-45%.
• The Democrat candidates won 86% of the Blacks, 60% of the Hispanics, and 58% of the Asians.  

Donald Trump has towered over the last four elections.  After premeditated endless vilification and grotesquely unfair impeachments during his term in the presidency, the Democrats successfully focused on Trump as their overarching campaign issue in the 2020 presidential election as well as the 2018 and 2022 mid-terms.  

By reprising that strategy through the use of unconscionable lawfare after Trump announced his run for a second term, the Democrat machine will again structure a campaign centered around Trump versus their nominee who will be promoted as the not-Trump candidate -- and who likely will not be either Joe Biden or Kamala Harris.

Trump is overwhelmingly favored to win the Republican nomination.  There is little doubt among the vast majority of Republicans that he would do a great job if he were to once again occupy the Oval Office.  But first he has to win in November of 2024. 

To that end, from someone who will wholeheartedly support him again if he is the nominee, some questions for Donald Trump on how he plans to prevail in the battleground states of Arizona,  Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Neither Trump nor any Republican can win the presidency without winning three of the four.  

In late October 2020, Donald Trump’s national approval rating was 46%. The independents in these four states voted for Biden by an average margin of 53-44%.  Trump’s national approval rating currently sits at 39.6%. What are his plans to increase his vote among this vital and determinative voting bloc within the swing states?

In these four crucial states, Biden won the 18-45 age group by 14 percentage points (56-42%), while Trump won the remaining age groups by 6 percentage points (53-47%).   However, as nearly 4 million turn 18 each year combined with the death of more than 2 million older Americans each year, the ever-growing impact of the younger population in the upcoming election cannot be ignored.  What is being done to win over more younger voters?

Can Donald Trump overcome the animosity he engenders among 28-30% of the voting electorate who would crawl over broken glass to vote against him? Can he find sufficient votes to offset their impact in the battleground states?  Can he find sufficient votes to offset their impact in the battleground states?

54% of likely voters believe that cheating will determine the outcome of the 2024 election.  Thus far, Trump’s three-time hand-picked Republican National Committee (RNC) Chairman,  Ronna McDaniel, who oversaw the disastrous non-response to voting fraud in the last two election cycles, has done nothing on the ground in the vital swing states.  What concrete steps is the RNC undertaking to offset or eliminate Democrat party cheating and fraud?

Ron DeSantis should also reveal how his plans for increasing the independent and youth vote as well as offsetting Democrat party cheating and fraud in these four battleground states.   It does not matter whether he or Tump captures the Republican nomination but it does matter that whoever is nominated must win in November of 2024.

Graphic credit: Victoria Regen Pixabay license