China’s use of balloons to overfly U.S. territory is not an accident – it’s part of China’s Long Game for capturing Taiwan and becoming the world’s leading superpower. 

What is this Long Game?

China is the oldest country on earth, dating back to 4,000 B.C.

Honoring their ancient general-philosopher Sun Tzu, China’s earned a reputation for playing the “Long Game,” whether the game involves corporate stratagems or strategic military plans. 

Add to this, when it comes to China, there are no coincidences. 

When planning for the long term, everything happening in the here and now are inevitably linked to their long game.  Which is why the South Carolina balloon was shot down less than a week before U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s long-planned trip to Beijing. 

In the face of this “intrusion” into American airspace, Blinken was forced to cancel his plan to conduct “peaceful” discussions with Chinese leaders, including Supreme Leader Xi Jinping.  This timing was no coincidence.

To understand how their “Long Game” works, consider the South China Sea, a vast area of the Pacific Ocean surrounded by Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore … and China.  One-third of the world's maritime shipping passes through the South China Sea, carrying more than $3 trillion in trade each year.  Huge oil and natural gas reserves are believed to lie beneath its seabed, while fisheries provide vital protein to help feed more than a billion people.  An international waterway surrounded by competing interests, China has viewed this body of water as an inland sea – their inland sea.

Long before China had a blue-water Navy, which they’re only now still building, China knew it wanted to take control of the South China Sea.  So, 40 years before they had the means of enforcing a hostile takeover, they’d already laid claims to the unoccupied Spratly Islands (Chinese: 南沙群島/南沙群岛), long claimed by the Philippines and Vietnam.  A quick glance at a map will make the “why” to those claims obvious. 

Fast forward to the early 2020s. China now occupies some of those islands while it’s literally creating new islands out of sub-surface reefs and seamount outcroppings. These man-made islands are big enough to play host to air force bases located a thousand or more miles away from mainland China.  Those bases, equipped with both modern Fifth-Generation J-20 stealth fighter-bombers and land-based hypersonic anti-ship missiles, are now in the position to interdict any seaborne traffic using the South China Sea, including American Navy aircraft carrier task forces that routinely patrol this vital seaway. 

This is a classic example of China’s obsession with the Long Game.

 Bottom line: Whenever you consider what’s behind China’s latest action, don’t just consider short-term benefits to them – what’s their long game? 

Which brings us to Balloongate.  What’s their long game?  Consider these facts:

First, as far back as 2017, China was using large balloons to carry hypersonic missiles and EMP generators – weapons that could lay waste to vast swathes of the United States.

Second, while the balloon shot down over South Carolina offshore waters was the first our government has publicly acknowledged. A review of previously unexamined records of anomalous radar sightings suggests that China’s been overflying the U.S. with large balloons for a number of years.

Third, predictably, when the large balloon was spotted by civilians and the media, Biden was unable to act quickly.  Only when negative reaction spilled out into the media did Biden order it shot down … after it had cleared American airspace.

Fourth, as soon as it became clear that this was a Chinese balloon, Secretary Blinken canceled his planned trip to Beijing – a knee-jerk reaction that Xi knew would result from America’s spotting of the balloon.

Fifth, predictably humiliated by its inability to take timely action against the first acknowledged intruder, Biden began ordering the destruction of any “UFO” – in the literal meaning of the term:  Unidentified Flying Object.

These are all precursors to China’s current Long Game.

As a quick aside, I’m currently researching a book I’m writing on a near-future war between the U.S. and China over mastery of the South China Sea and the control of Taiwan.  This research has made it clear that there is indeed a Long Game in play – from the Spratlys to their new blue water Navy.  In that context, it’s clear these balloon incursions are part of their Long Game to push America into a crippled second-class status. 

What’s next?  Here’s how this Long Game could play out:

Now that China has “groomed” Biden to react with force to any balloon sighting, the next time the Chinese send a large balloon with a large payload container, within that container will be the equivalent of a space capsule. This pod, well-protected against the very thin air at 60,000 feet, and featuring a crew of several Chinese civilian scientists – one of them likely a woman – will need to “innocently” operate a slew of non-threatening meteorological monitors. These volunteers will be sent to die for the PRC, which will occur when Biden knee-jerk orders the shoot-down of another “unmanned” spy balloon.

As soon as it’s down, China will go public with proof that this was a manned high-altitude weather balloon – a huge humiliation for Biden and America.

Having achieved this goal, China will then assume the “right” to send future balloons with whatever Xi wants in them, leaving America feeling impotent to act against them.

O.K., that could easily be seen as a conspiracy theory, but it does fit all the known facts. The first balloon had an equipment pod as large as a regional jet airliner – a hundred feet long, big enough to house within its walls a well-equipped manned pod.

Following this, Xi has sent over a flock of smaller balloons, all of which – when discovered – were more-or-less immediately shot down, allowing Biden to demonstrate his “iron resolve” to defend our country.

More important, this burns into Biden’s brain the knee-jerk “if it’s not ours, blast it” reaction.

Anticipating this automatic reaction, Xi knows it’s now the perfect time to "force a confrontation."  He’ll do this when he’s sure all the cards are stacked against America.

With this action-pattern established, Xi will find it easy to send a manned – though not obviously so – balloon into American airspace, where it will be promptly shot down.  Costing the lives of several Chinese “civilian” scientists – martyrs for the next step in China’s long-term grab for international ascendancy – this will be a global PR disaster for Biden. 

This scenario fits all the known facts, including sending a sacrificial balloon over America a week before Blinken was due in Beijing for “peaceful” talks. 

Xi clearly tried to provoke something by sending that balloon at that time.  At the very least, China knew they were risking provoking something with America … remember, there are no coincidences … and they do like to play a Long Game. 

Ned Barnett, an historian and author of 40 published books, is currently writing a fact-based novel about a near-future war between the U.S. and China, focusing on a battle over Taiwan … a war triggered by China.   Of Ned’s 40 published books, ten are historical novels on Kindle, set in 1941-2 and focusing on the air war between Japan and the U.S.

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