The usual election spin has begun.  "Biden's not really so bad.  Democrats will retain the House and Senate.  Newsom will step in for the '24 presidential election.  Dems will win everything..."

Only it's worse this time.  The spin began the moment Trump won in 2016, and it has never stopped.  It began with the Russia-gate hoax, then the two false impeachments, the Jan. 6 committee, the raid on Mar-a-Lago, and now it culminates with the confident predictions that Dems will retain the Senate and the House.

Nate Cohn, writing in the New York Times, suggested that "this time may be different" and the party in power may actually gain seats.  Or as CNN's Chris Cillizza put it in early September, "Democrats have the edge in the fight for Senate control."  Or as Newsweek's Jack Dutton had it back in the summer, "Democrats favored to win Senate for the first time as polling improves."  And again and again, from MSNBC to CBS to the Washington Post, "Democrats will win."

Don't believe it.

The midterm elections are only three weeks away.  In almost every midterm election since 1934, the party out of power gains seats (in the House, the exceptions were 1998 and 2002, when Democrats picked up 4 seats under Bill Clinton and Republicans won 8 seats under George W. Bush), and in times of dissatisfaction, they gain a lot of seats.  Barring a miracle, Republicans will take the House, and the Senate is up for grabs.

Biden's popularity is low, and dissatisfaction with the Democrat-controlled Congress is greater than ever (60% have an unfavorable opinion of Nancy Pelosi).  The media will try to cover it up, but the public is angry.  The events of Jan. 6 were a symptom of that anger, and things have gotten worse since then.  Inflation is not going away, the border is out of control, and foreign policy is a disaster.

 As Michael Barone wrote on Sept 30, "usually, in midterm elections, the president's party loses a few seats if his job approval is above 50% and many seats if it's below."  As for the Senate, Barone notes that recent polls show GOP candidates just slightly behind in Wisconsin, Georgia, and Nevada (other polls show Johnson and Laxalt ahead in Wisconsin and Nevada), but he stresses that "Wisconsin is only one of many states in which polling has consistently shown Democrats running far better and Republicans far worse than they actually have when the results were counted."

In other words, the polls always lie.

If polls show Republican Senate candidates practically tied with Democrats, it means that the GOP candidates are actually ahead by a convincing margin.  If either Laxalt or Walker win and other seats remain with the same party, Republicans will retake control.

And even some of the polls that always underrate Republicans' chances now show GOP candidates pulling ahead.  As of Sept. 24–29, GOP candidates lead in Wisconsin and Nevada and are close in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire. 

Every election, the left-wing media confidently predict that Democrats will take everything — just to discourage the conservative turnout.  This time it's as if Republicans won't win a single seat, and Democrats can look forward to winning even bigger in '24.

None of that will happen because the American public is at a boiling point.  That anger with progressive politicians will come out at the polls.  Expect a massive turnout of conservatives and huge gains in the House and Senate — perhaps 60 seats in the House and a turnover in the Senate.

There is already evidence of a Red Wave in turnout numbers from the midterm primaries.  As the New York Post reported back in May, "Republican primary voters showed up in droves to take part in Tuesday’s contests, a good early sign for GOP hopes to regain the House and Senate this fall."  Early voting trends are not yet available, but circumstances are similar to those that produced a Red Wave in 1994 and 2010, when Republicans picked up 54 and 63 House seats, respectively.  The  Democrat margin in the House is currently 6 seats.

The historical record for the party in power is equally bleak with regard to retaining Senate control, especially for Democrats, who have picked up Senate seats only once in midterm elections since 1934 (4 seats under JFK in 1962).  In other years, Republicans picked up 2 seats under Nixon in 1970, 2 seats under George W. Bush in 2002, and 2 seats under Trump in 2018.  It would be highly unlikely for Democrats to pick up Senate seats, or even a single seat, in 2022 since they have done so only once since 1934.

And this is especially so since Biden's popularity numbers are now among the worst of any president in modern American history.  Fifty-four percent of Americans disapprove of Biden's job performance, and a full 43% of Americans polled strongly disapprove.  Those are the kind of numbers that translate into voters going to the polls.  And yet liberal media and polling continue to insist that Republicans can't win on Nov. 8.

Liberals base their predictions on nothing more than what they wish to be true.  I am confident not just because I wish conservatives to win, but because Democrats have governed so poorly that there has to be a response from the American people.  There always has been, when things have gotten this bad.  And things are bad, what with war abroad, global inflation, and predictions from Larry Summers and many others of a serious recession ahead.

I am looking forward to the Nov. 8 election and have already invited friends over.  I have no doubt that the predictions of GOP losses are false.  And I can't wait 'til '24, no matter what the media say about the "new Biden."

Jeffrey Folks is the author of many books and articles on American culture including Heartland of the Imagination (2011).

Image via Pxhere.