President Joe Biden is suffering from dementia, and it's worsening before our eyes.

You know it, I know it, everyone knows it.

His handlers know it.  Why else would they issue him absurdly detailed cue cards telling him when to stand and sit?

His vice president knows it.  Kamala Harris explicitly noted her future running mate's cognitive problems during the 2020 Democratic debates.

Even the president's drug-addicted, prostitute-frequenting, influence-peddling son knows it.  Hunter cruelly mocks the elder Biden's senility on the Laptop from Hell.

It is a national tragedy that a fragile, senile, non compos mentis old man is the president of the United States.  Nevertheless, this scandalous state of affairs is downplayed so much by the Democrats, the Washington bureaucracy, and complicit press and social media outlets that Biden and many around him — Harris included — still speak seriously about Biden seeking a second term in 2024.

Only very recently are cracks starting to form in the leftist elites' see-no-evil attitude to Biden's dementia.  See the New York Times' recent article for evidence.  However, it appears that this new view is predicated more by Biden's currently horrendous polling, which threatens to sink the Democrats' midterm prospects, than by Biden's cognitive decline, which has been evident for years.

The notion of a second Biden term raises another question about the man, one even more existential than his undeniable cognitive dysfunction.  The question is, would Joe Biden even live through a second term as president?

As a practicing physician who cares for numerous elderly patients and addresses dementia and end-of-life issues on a regular basis, your humble correspondent decided to take a closer look at this question.

Here are my findings:

Joe Biden's listed birth date is November 20, 1942.  Thus, at this writing, Joe Biden is 79 years and 8 months old.

Were he to win re-election in 2024, then by his second inauguration, he would be 82 years and 2 months of age.  At the end of a second term, he would be 86 years and 2 months old.

How long does the average 79-year-old man have to live?

According to the Social Security Administration, the life expectancy for a 79-year-old American male is an additional 8.82 years, for a total life expectancy of 87.82 years.

This would take Joe Biden to late 2029 — less than a year after the end of a second term.  That's cutting it awfully close, especially for a man struggling as badly as he obviously is right now.

But it gets worse.

Those Social Security numbers are for all comers in Biden's age group.  But remember, Joe Biden has dementia, and dementia shortens life expectancy.

How much?

A recent study by Carol Brayne et al., published in the prestigious British Medical Journal, concluded that the median survival time from a diagnosis of dementia is 4.5 years for all persons and 4.1 years for men.

Assuming we very generously "diagnose" Joe Biden's dementia as starting now — say, July 1, 2022 — then 4.1 years places us around August 2026.  In other words, by this measure, Biden's most likely date of death will be less than halfway through his second term as president.

I also reviewed the standard clinical scale for measuring progress of dementia, known as the Reisberg Scale or the Global Deterioration Scale (GDS).

The GDS divides dementia into 7 stages, Stage 7 being the most severe.  By a careful review of the criteria and of available video of Biden over time, I believe he is currently at least at Stage 4, which is referred to as "moderate cognitive decline."

It is worth noting here that the president of the United States is one of the most supported and protected persons on Earth.  Joe Biden makes limited public appearances, which are carefully scheduled, tightly controlled, and highly choreographed.  We, the public, only see Joe Biden at his best.  It is possible that his dementia has actually reached Stage 5 on the GDS, or "moderately severe cognitive decline."

Given his demonstrated ability to still make prepared statements and public appearances, it seems unlikely to me that Biden's dementia has advanced beyond Stage 5, where many basic mental functions are obviously impaired.

So what does this mean moving forward?

The cited average duration of Stage 4 dementia is two years.  For Stage 5, it is 1.5 years.  Again, if we very generously assume that Joe Biden is "entering" Stage 4 right now — say July 1, 2022 — then he is likely to progress through Stages 4 and 5 and into Stage 6, "severe cognitive decline," by late 2025, approximately a year into a second term.

In other words, a second Biden term presents the very real prospect of a president who cannot identify his family members, count down from ten, nor control toilet function, with three years remaining in his term.

An important side note: Joe Biden also has a serious problem with falls.  Recurrent falls are a strong predictor of death in the elderly.

Biden's recent bike accident on vacation at Rehoboth Beach, his repeated stumbles climbing the stairs to Air Force One in March 2021, and his broken foot sustained while playing with his dog in November 2020 provide ample evidence that the president is a "fall risk."  And of course, these are just the incidents known to the public.  There may be many more.

Biden could have very easily broken a hip on any of the above occasions.  When an elderly patient falls and breaks a hip, his mortality within one year is over 20 percent, even with surgery.  Once again, dementia increases the risk.

Furthermore, Biden reportedly suffers from atrial fibrillation, an irregular heartbeat that puts the patient at high risk for stroke.  For this he reportedly takes Eliquis, a blood-thinner that prevents stroke but significantly increases the risk of hemorrhage in the case of falls.

Patients requiring anticoagulation for stroke prevention who are also fall risks are caught between a rock and a hard place.  A fall with head trauma while on "blood thinners" may cause severe bleeding in the brain.  However, discontinuing the anticoagulation medicine causes their risk of embolic (blood clot–related) stroke to increase dramatically.  Joe Biden appears to be in this situation.

In summary, after a detailed review of relevant medical data, here are this physician's conclusions:

On Election Day, November 2024, President Joe Biden will, more likely than not, still be alive.  However, his dementia will most likely be sufficiently advanced by then that it will be obvious to everyone that he is incapable of serving another term.

By Inauguration Day, January 2029 (at what would be the end of a second term), President Joe Biden will, more likely than not, have died of natural causes.

Given the utmost importance of the presidency, I implore the people of the United States to take these concerns more seriously than they have done until now.

Image: Gage Skidmore via Flickr, CC BY-SA 2.0.