Recent polls indicate that former vice president Joe Biden has a significant lead over President Trump. Democrat leaders are holding their self-confidence in check as they recall the horror (to them) of 2016. Likewise, the horrors of the last few weeks will not be forgotten by the voters in November.

The marathon campaign for the presidency will soon kick up a notch or two. Current polling data is as meaningful today as it was in 2016. Trump’s star will rise before November, in part due to these three impactful factors, which are primarily favorable to President Trump.

The Democrats have yet to tell Joe Biden who his VP candidate is going to be. In an early campaign blunder Biden declared a preference for a black female, thus limiting the DNC’s options. This is not intended to be a detailed analysis of the potential nominees, but rather an overview, as to why the decision on his running mate will work to Trump’s advantage.

First, consider the DNC wants to fulfill Biden’s desire for a black female VP nominee. The current BLM situation makes that choice a near certainty.

Speculation is strong that Biden will not last the full four years of his potential presidency. His fading mental acuity, deeply troubling to many, adds to this uncertainty. This elevates the significance of the VP candidate in a fashion rarely seen in a presidential campaign. But the impact on election outcome of any individual running mate, has been limited. Hillary Clinton did not lose because she picked Tim Kaine and John McCain lost on his own merits, not those of Sarah Palin.

This year the DNC is desperately searching for someone, anyone, who can fit the bill: black, experienced, a good campaigner, and one who will attract independent voters. Of the much-ballyhooed choices: Stacey Abrams, Rep. Karen Bass (CA), Atlanta mayor Keisha Bottoms, Rep, Val Demings (FL), Sen. Kamala Harris, and Susan Rice, none of them fully fit that criteria.

Several on this list are simply being vetted as courtesy. Abrams singularly believes her best qualification to be VP is the fact she lost the Georgia governorship. Victimhood does not play well to independent voters. Harris is wholly unlikeable to almost anyone not firmly in Biden’s camp. Her performance in the primaries is testimony to that reality.

Rice may be the ideal candidate in the minds of the DNC: She is willing to deceive the American people on fundamental facts, she is a disciple of President Obama, and she has no voting record on which to be attacked.

None of the above named are capable of drawing voters to the Biden campaign, except in select cases.

Many of them are capable of repelling voters (Abrams, Harris, Rice) pushing voters towards Trump, or encouraging abstinence.

Michelle Obama is a long shot. The excitement level on the left would be almost as high as the repulsion factor on the right.

If the DNC decides on a black female, look for it to be Rice, confirming Obama’s influence. Make no mistake, the candidate will be a woman, to go with anyone else would result in a backlash not previously seen.

That leaves us with Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar (her withdrawal could be rescinded). Hillary Clinton would also be on this list. But Obama would not let that happen. Warren and Clinton nominations would both favor Trump. Klobuchar has the distinction of not having any distinction. The fact that she passed on recommending charges against the officer involved in George Floyd’s death is a huge strike against her.

Best guess: none of the above.

There are others not named, who are relatively unknown nationally. Selecting a running mate, one not widely known, is not uncommon. It is highly probable that a person not discussed could emerge as the choice. Advantage: Trump.

A second factor will be the presidential debates. Democrats have been keeping Biden in the basement and out of the public eye for good reasons beyond the Wuhan virus. Like Hillary before him, the more one sees of the candidate, the less likely he is to get their vote.

The debates will be telling, Biden has no place to hide and his misstatements have the potential to be remarkably embarrassing. There have been very damaging moments in presidential or vice-presidential debates.  President Reagan’s ‘age’ response during his debate against Mondale or Lloyd Bentsen’s ‘You’re no Jack Kennedy’ comment to Dan Quayle both come immediately to mind.

While the Biden camp has agreed to three debates, it will be surprising if three do occur. President Trump will do well in the debates, and the Democrats know it. Advantage: Trump

Lastly, there is the ‘Known/Unknown’ scenario looming. Based on recently released documents, the once-rumored ‘Obamagate’ conspiracy is now known. This plot involved people at the highest levels of government. Also known is that the goal was to destroy Donald Trump’s presidency. Attorney General William Barr and Congressman Devin Nunes have been dropping hints that the seemingly endless investigations are about to come to a head.  What is unknown is what the response will be. These crimes, if they go unpunished will firmly place the deep state in control of our fate. Both the Democrats and the anti-Trumpers are fine with that scenario. Americans are not.

If AG Barr actually does what is right, justice will be served: Advantage Trump.