On the 16th of March of this year, in a text exchange with my youngest son, I made what was at the time a bold forecast.

I told him that based on some back-of-the-envelope calculations, the rapidly growing pandemic coronavirus disease, now known as COVID-19, would be essentially over in Michigan by no later than sometime between 21 April 2020 through 20 May 2020.  It now appears I made about the right call, as the current models from credible sources (IHME,  data current as of 10 April 2020) using data rather than assumptions are actually landing on about the 24th of April as the day that our need for hospital beds for COVID-19 patients falls well below 10% of our capacity, and our “mortality curve” from coronavirus in Michigan goes nearly flat, with few new daily deaths after those dates.  The mortality curve does not flatten completely (with no new daily deaths forecast) until May 6, 2020. 

The point is not to brag, I give all the credit to the Lord God almighty, but I am immensely pleased the forecast is coming true, and hope that the boy will now perceive dad's crazy ideas in a more favorable light. This realization of more favorable outcomes means dramatically fewer deaths than previously forecast by the screeching Leftist media, cynically striving to make the epidemic a political win for themselves and their team.  Despite the impending loss for their political ideologues, (as they must surely suffer terribly at the ballot box for sacrificing American lives, rights, and fortunes at the altar of their own political caste and ideology) it is a huge win for preservation of American lives, and another testament in a long history of witness to American fortitude and ingenuity.  Way to go, U.S.A.   

However, our state governments should have done much better with their response, and not imposed unconstitutional restrictions on our liberties.  The voluntary measures were working, Americans were cooperating with the recommendations, and the onerous orders actually made the epidemic worse.  As of this writing (2 a.m. Eastern on 11 April 2020) the new infection rates are trending solidly downward, and although we must yet endure for some brief time the declining threat from the virus, our liberties are presently more threatened than at any time in 155 years, since the Civil War. 

I did not have the best data to work with when making those assumptions and compiling the trend analysis that landed me on that accurate date range.  And I am no statistical genius.  My back-of-the-envelope calculations that turned out to be accurate were produced with publicly available data, mostly taken from the experience of places that had already suffered the virus, and data from the Johns Hopkins site tracking new cases and deaths around the world. 

The State of Michigan government should have come to better conclusions, faster than me, and they should have implemented better policy decisions.  People in government and academia had much better data, but apparently failed to make the right assumptions. That is distressing, not least because the previously overstated and hysterical forecasting has led to overreaction in policy decisions rolled out for the declared purposes of fighting the virus, with devastating human and economic costs. Our national economy threatens depression.  In some parts of the United States our fundamental constitutional rights have been taken from us, and the authorities separating us from our rights are reluctant to return them.  They are extending the time of the restrictions, and making them even more restrictive.  Our governor has actually presumed to practice medicine from her office, by banning licensed pharmacists from the filling of hydroxychloroquine prescriptions for use against COVID-19. This was done through administrative actions with much fanfare, as a cynical political stunt, to counter the politically potent perception that the U.S. president was correct (perspicacious?) in his hopeful assessment that hydroxychloroquine might prove useful in the fight.  Several days later she quietly rescinded the order when it became obvious that she was wrong, and that unnecessary suffering and death may have been the result.  Such ill-intentioned political cynicism implemented as policy and imposed upon the citizenry is an outrage, and must be some kind of crime.  Perhaps even homicide. 

Michigan presently suffers under numerous gubernatorial orders (42 this year!) separating citizens from their U.S. constitutional rights and rights under Michigan law.  A good argument can be made that orders such as Whitmer's increased the spread of the disease.  These orders caused a panic and an easily foreseeable rush to buy groceries, resulting in the inevitable press of the crowd in overcrowded stores, as newly-minted disaster-prepper citizens cleared the shelves.  I know from personal witness such was the case here in Michigan, where we repeatedly observed about 20 minutes between a new executive order from Lansing, and the stores being bum rushed by the crowds.  Our governor did this repeatedly, starting 10 March 2020, publishing 16 more (!) executive orders for a couple of weeks before releasing the first version of her “Stay Home” order on the 23^rd of March.  After the initial stay-home order was released, the rush on the stores lasted about three days, and stores previously open 24 hours had to start closing overnight.  The result increased spread of the virus, although (hopefully) an unintended consequence, which had been observed and reported on during and after her previous orders. It was therefore, foreseeable, and completely preventable. 

As residents of Michigan, one such order we are presently subject to is EO #2020-42, that forbids us to work.  This is not an exaggeration:

“1. This order must be construed broadly to prohibit in-person work that is not necessary to sustain or protect life. “

People who have jobs that can be done from home, or those with government jobs designated “critical infrastructure” positions are required to work, and are retaining their income, but I am not one of those folks.  This is only one example of the abrogation of our constitutional rights imposed upon us by these onerous orders.  First Amendment rights of freedom of assembly are quashed. Fourteenth Amendment constraints against the states taking our federal constitutional rights from us are clearly violated.  An argument can be made that we have been deprived of our Fifth Amendment right to liberty. We are certainly being denied our right to property, without due process, as we are presently constrained by the executive orders of the governor against leaving our homes, or traveling between residences. 

Epidemics have a beginning, a middle, and an end, and we in Michigan are presently just past the middle, just barely beyond the peak of detrimental impacts; after yesterday (10 April) everything should improve some each day. Epidemics of highly contagious viral diseases run their courses in similar (not identical, but similar) statistical fashion, hence the easily understood trend "curve" we are all trying to flatten by avoiding face to face interactions. In Michigan we have passed the "peak" of our curve's demand for hospital resources, so demand for those resources is decreasing.  Despite the dire forecasts, many of our smaller county facilities remain almost untouched by the disease to this day.  Those large metro area hospitals around the state that did find themselves overburdened were relieved by the excess capacity of neighboring regional facilities.  We are well along on the downhill side of our infection rate curve.  With one exception, the downward trend in new infections has continued each day since 31 March 2020, and as of yesterday we set our third-day-in-a-row daily record for a new low in the percentage-increase of new cases, at 4.32% 

The cure has become worse than the disease, and the cure is getting worse as the disease fades. 

This epidemic in Michigan is presently a dead virus walking.  It is still with us, but only for a few more days.  Once we get past the first wave of this thing, we humans will have developed some significant "herd immunity."  We may already have it, and an anecdote to support it, a Chicago hospital yesterday indicated as much as 30% to 50% of that population may already have the immunity.  This should be obvious to anyone who understands that: 

1) the virus is very contagious, so lots of people catch it quickly,

2) most people who do get it have had only mild symptoms, and therefore do not seek medical attention from a professional, and

3) since you have to have symptoms to get tested, none of those people appear in the “confirmed cases” statistics.  There are lots of folks out there walking around who have had the disease, produced the antibodies, and are therefore presently incapable of catching it or spreading it to others.  We still need to take extra precautions around folks who are vulnerable, such as grandma and your late middle aged friends and relatives with blood pressure, respiratory or heart conditions, but they need to be tested for COVID-19 antibodies too.  We all do.  I am certain all of my family has been through it, way back in February. (1)    Based on the fundamental epidemiological notion that I personally have some immunity, I can neither contract the disease, nor pass it on to anyone else.  Why am I still forced by government edict to remain in my home? 

As a nation, we have already built some herd immunity, and this immunity means that although the virus will probably become a regular recurring "flu season" illness, we will never again suffer the dramatic high rates of infection, nor raw numbers of fatalities.  Better still, since we are daily improving our understanding of how to best treat for and vaccinate against the disease, we will reduce not only the transmission rates, but the virulence of the disease in those unfortunate enough to get it.

Finally, briefly, some perspective.  If your family is affected by the loss of a loved one, the disease is a tragedy.  However, each day in the U.S., about 6,500 to 7,700 people die from all causes.  The present forecast of about 60,000 to 70,000 COVID-19 deaths nationwide from this first wave of disease, means by the time we get to July we will have -- over five months -- experienced increased fatalities equivalent to about 10 days of ordinary daily American mortality. 

Are we really going to implode our economy for the sake of a 2.5% increase in mortality for this one year when the virus caught us all by surprise, especially knowing the death rate will never again be this high?  Because, between better medications, vaccines, and herd immunity, the fatality rates for COVID-19 will never be this high again.  It really is very comparable to shutting down our national productivity because of the annual flu season. 

So the arithmetic matters, and making the right assumptions matters.  Understanding the infection rates and trend curves does not change the reality, but it gives us better understanding of the viral threat’s actual capabilities, and we are thereby made better able to deal with it, physically, socially, and psychologically.  The idea that we shall continue to be forcibly isolated for months into the future is simply ridiculous.  It’s not quite over, but COVID-19 is a dead virus walking.  The government imposed cure is already worse than the disease.  It is time to move on, help heal the injured families, and plan the recovery.  Get the big brains together quick and roll out the “Re-open America” program within the next couple of weeks.  And please take very good care that they make the right assumptions. 

Endnotes:

1)  We had no idea at the time that what we were experiencing was the COVID-19 virus, because the only significant symptom publicized at the time was the respiratory distress, and none of us had much of that.  We all suffered from upper and lower GI symptoms, high fever, headache, prolonged exhaustion of 3 to 5 days, and changes to sense of taste and smell.  Some experienced some non-productive coughing.  All of those symptoms have now been correlated with the COVID-19 virus.