Now Is the Time to Stay in Iraq, Not Leave

With the death of General Soleimani and Iran's subsequent "saving face" retaliation, many pundits and commentators have expressed fear of an escalation of violence between the U.S. and Iran, something that could even mount into a third world war.

Considering that those pushing this narrative also happen to push the narrative that Trump is a fascist dictator, Obama's foreign policy was beyond reproach, and the current impeachment is completely legitimate, it's safe to assume that these critics are mistaken.  Trump is unlikely to start a war with Iran; he has no reason to do so, nor does anyone want this of him.

The real thing to fear is the opposite scenario: Trump calls it a day after killing Soleimani and pulls troops out of Iraq and Syria.  Many prominent conservatives have argued elsewhere that Americans should take this opportunity to the leave the region altogether.  They argue that continued American involvement could well lead to an escalation of violence, but also that it has failed in its mission to promote peace and progress in the region.  Furthermore, they point out how the U.S. presence has provided a cover and scapegoat for theocratic regimes trying to stay in power.

Therefore, they conclude that if the Americans left now, Iraq, Iran, and neighboring countries would finally deal with their own problems, have less reason for aggression toward one another, and have some kind of stability.  And if things destabilize even more, the U.S. could at least not take blame for it anymore.

Even if some of the people making this case credit themselves as "realists," there is nothing realistic about this prediction.  Rather, history strongly suggests that leaving the region altogether in response to Iranian threats and Iraqi protests would embolden bad actors; leave a power vacuum; and, yes, escalate violence in the region.

If Obama's foreign policy failures taught us anything, it is that pulling out troops in Iraq and complying with the wishes of theocrats in Iran only makes things worse: it leads to massive terror groups like ISIS; it encourages Iran intervening in places like Lebanon, Yemen, Jordan, and Iraq; and it leaves the U.S. and its allies ever more vulnerable to terrorist strikes.  True, sending pallets of cash to Iran didn't help, either, but the first step was military withdrawal.

It is almost certain that this would happen again if Trump withdrew American forces.  Iranians would turn Iraq into a proxy state, continue funding terrorist groups in adjacent countries, launch various attacks against American ships and Saudi oil fields, and resume their work on developing nuclear weapons.  Indeed, as Rep. Dan Crenshaw put it, Iranian leaders are "experts at creating chaos."  Meanwhile, the severe regression and repression of autocrats and theocrats would continue past the point any reform, and every remaining Christian and other religious minority would be persecuted into oblivion.

Something else to consider, in light of the new wave of protests erupting all over the country this past week, is the real possibility of the Iranian regime imploding under the pressure of economic sanctions and civil unrest.  Besides killing so many American and Iraqi soldiers, Soleimani was also busy killing many Iranians who have been rioting all over the country last year.  Contrary to the belief that the ayatollah and his henchmen are popular with the people, many are eager to overthrow them and have been for a long time.  That does not necessarily mean that Americans should try to arm rebel factions as they did in Syria, but they can at least disarm the leadership and diminish the damage they inflict.

Furthermore, whether Iran crumbles from within or remains in power, the U.S. has good reason for containment.  Like communism, political Islam is a seductive ideology that has the power to ruin thriving countries.  People tend to forget that Iran, Jordan, and Lebanon were once civilized places with educated, diverse populations before they fell under radical Islamists — just as they forget that Cuba and Venezuela were among the richest countries in the Americas before they became communist dictatorships.

At this point, many will object that the U.S. may have to stay in Iraq for a long time if the U.S. hopes to keep the peace and contain Iranian influence and aggression.  This is true.  Americans may well have to stay for decades, just as they have in Japan, Germany, and South Korea.  These examples, all formerly fascist dictatorships, should give hope to those despairing the potential of Iraq or Iran.  The counter-examples of South Vietnam and North Korea should also serve as a warning of what happens when Americans leave too soon.

For the time being, these reasons should be sufficient to stay in the region and continue putting pressure on Iran, which is what Trump indicated he would do in his address to the nation.  However, there are still strong contingents that will press for complete military withdrawal: libertarian non-interventionists on the right and Trump-resistors on the left.

Considering the bias and misinformation that dominates commentary on the Left, there isn't much of a point in taking their contentions seriously.  They have already shown themselves willing to repeatedly defend murderous dictators and terrorists for the sake of defying the president.

Answering the arguments from libertarians, though, is the necessary task of those who support Trump and the idea of Pax Americana.  To the idea that "It's none of America's business what other countries do and never has been," they must show that it actually is America's business.  With great power comes great responsibility, and this is all the more so for a superpower like the U.S.  To shirk this responsibility is not only unwise, but un-Christian.  The moment its leaders act like Pontius Pilate and wash their hands of this responsibility or like Cain, who rejected responsibility altogether, innocent people die, genocides occur, and enemies eventually come to harm Americans with greater force.

That doesn't mean anyone will be happy about Americans taking care of the world — quite the opposite.  Nevertheless, it is the right thing to do, and Americans would do well to follow Trump's example right now and ignore what the world might think.  Others can say what they want because it doesn't matter.  We do what have to.

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