The presidential election in November 2020 will be close, at least from a popular vote standpoint. Even if President Trump handily defeats his Democratic challenger in the Electoral College -- whoever that challenger ends up being -- the popular vote is likely to be within a very few percentage points, one way or the other.

At first blush, the notion that President Trump would be anything other than an overwhelming victor in November seems illogical. Consider all the usual factors that determine whether or not a president is re-elected:

The Economy

By any measure, the economy is extremely strong. Unemployment is at a 50-year low. Most economists feel that at around its current 3.5%, unemployment is at its structural lower limit, that it really can’t go much lower. The employment situation is strong across all demographic sectors, with black and Hispanic unemployment at all-time historic lows and female unemployment at a half-century low. Wages are rising strongly as well, with the lower income categories showing significantly larger percentage gains than the upper income groups. Considering that inflation is still extremely modest, these wage gains translate into a real increase in purchasing power, and indeed, the consumer spending segment of the economy is quite strong.

This is great news for an incumbent president and the reality of the employment/wage picture combined with continuing strong consumer optimism flies in the face of hollow, desperate claims by Democratic presidential hopefuls that the “economy is working only for the rich, but not for the middle and lower classes and not for minorities and women.” That’s hogwash, pure and simple. Despite the Democrats’ and the liberal media’s best efforts to downplay the strong economy (HBO “comedian” Bill Maher is on record actually rooting for a recession to hurt President Trump!), the great economy is an undeniable fact, and it’s mostly due to President Trump’s direct actions of removing growth-killing punitive regulations that served only to punish marketplace success and ruin business confidence in name of the misguided Obama theory of something called “social justice.”

Energy Independence

Ever since the days of the Arab oil embargoes of 1973 and 1979 with their long lines at the gas station and odd-even day gasoline rationing, this country has dreamt of the day that we would be “energy independent,” producing enough of our own fuel so as to be largely independent of imports from other countries, with pricing remaining relatively stable and the country being mostly immune from geopolitical upheavals.

We’re there now. With domestic oil production having increased dramatically in the last 10-15 years. Due mostly to technological innovations such as fracking and horizontal drilling (techniques that simply didn’t exist a few years ago), the U.S. is for all practical purposes unaffected by events that happen elsewhere in the energy market. Neither the Iran-sponsored attack on the Saudi oil fields in September 2019, nor the killing of Qassim Suleimani and the subsequent Iranian downing of a Ukrainian airliner had anything even close to a significant impact on world oil pricing. U.S. West Texas crude was in the $50s/bbl before these events and it remains in the $50s today. That’s because our domestic supply is not threatened by Iran’s actions and our economy continues apace without the doubling or tripling of oil pricing amid foreign unrest that would have occurred a few short years ago. If the price of gasoline at the pumps had risen from $2.40/gallon to $4.50 gallon, the President would get the blame, instantly. Instead, prices have barely budged. President Trump will make a big deal of that and take totally justifiable credit for unleashing the production of domestic energy, as he should.

Foreign Trade

With the imminent passage of the MCUSA Trade Agreement and the signing of the Phase One portion of the U.S.-China trade deal, American workers stand to benefit immeasurably from increased demand for American goods and a drastically-lowered incidence of illicit theft of American intellectual property. These are huge positive developments for the U.S. economy, especially the China deal. No president has ever dared take on China before. But President Trump fully recognized that the American market is absolutely, irreplaceably critical to the Chinese economy and he has dealt with them from a position of strength rather than apologetic weakness and fear, as did all of his predecessors (from both parties).

Most everything else is in President Trump’s plus column as well:

• We are enjoying record-setting stock market performance, the real benefit of which is not just to individual investors. More importantly, the market’s performance solidifies and secures the market-based pensions of millions of teachers, firemen/policemen and city/state/federal workers.
• The military is being re-built and modernized after years of neglect and derision by Obama and the Democrats.
• Trump is addressing the matter of illegal immigration and border security to the resounding approval of most Americans and to the horrified consternation of partisan Democrats who see his actions as a threat to closing down a heretofore reliable supply of future Democratic voters.
• His “America First” approach resonates strongly with level-minded individuals, who are tired of watching American pay its unfair share for NATO and the defense of Europe. As is the case with the China trade deal, getting Europe to ante up what they should have been paying all along is the right thing for him to do, and is something no past president has had the nerve to do.

So why will the popular vote be close, perhaps even razor-thin?

Because of “style.” Democrats, having no actual basis for policy disagreements, object to President Trump’s personal style. He’s harsh. He can be personally insulting. He can be crude. He committed the sin of defeating Hillary Clinton and had the temerity to call her “Crooked Hillary.” Sophisticated American public servants simply shouldn’t use disparaging nicknames.

The Democrats have fabricated bogus charges and supposed crimes to try to bring him down. The liberal mainstream media has been unrelenting in their negative coverage. From the baseless “Russia Collusion” and the resulting nothingburger of the Mueller Report to the “impeachment” hearings whose articles don’t even contain impeachable high crimes or misdemeanors (because, of course, there are none), the Democratic Party has tried desperately to reverse the 2016 election -- simply because they don’t approve of President Trump from a personal stylistic standpoint.

So it is also with ardent, close-minded Democratic voters. Even academically-smart, professionally-accomplished Democratic voters are blinded by their anger and resentment born of Trump’s rough personal style. Their attitude is, “He just doesn’t come across like a president should,” and “I want him removed from office and locked up.” When pressed for legal specifics in light of the baseless Mueller report and the total non-substance of the so-called impeachment inquiry, these Democratic voters respond with the harshly-worded, forehead-vein-popping, oh-so-convincing equivalent of, “Well… because.”

Their reactions are totally style-based. These voters are completely illogical and embarrassingly unintellectual, wholly detached from the reality of the superb economy, great employment among all demographic groups, rising wages, energy independence and beneficial trade agreements. All of which has been unequivocally brought about by President Trump’s policies, directly.

Unfortunately for President Trump and the country, these style-based unintellectual voters -- emotionally and rationally incapable and unwilling to connect the dots -- comprise a frighteningly large segment of the electorate. That’s why the election will be close.