When president-elect Donald Trump broke with decades of foreign policy by asserting that the U.S. might abandon its acceptance of the “One China” policy and no longer regard Taiwan as a part of China, he provoked predictable outrage from Beijing. By using this threat as a bargaining chip for better trade, Trump led the Chinese government to declare that the One China policy is the “political bedrock” of U.S.-China relations. The Taiwan issue is one of China’s “core interests”, referring to a nonnegotiable policy objective that forms the basis for China’s assertiveness on the international stage.

Beijing was already fuming over Trump accepting a congratulatory phone call from the Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen a few days earlier, marking the first official communication between an American and Taiwanese leader since 1979. While Chinese criticism of the move was stern towards the U.S., they struck a harsher tone towards Tsai, with foreign minister Wang Yi referring to the call as a “little trick pulled off by Taiwan.”

While many critics initially speculated that the move was an inadvertent gaffe showing Trump’s inexperience in global politics, advisers have indicated that the call represents a new plan to engage with Taiwan that had been planned for months. With many of Trump’s advisers known for favoring a tough stance towards China, the phone call could represent an overdue normalization of relations with Taiwan and its democratically elected government. The lack of diplomatic relations with Taiwan is an antiquated holdover from the Cold War. Despite widespread criticism of the move throughout the media, this recognition of Taiwan could help to stabilize an increasingly unstable region.

When the Obama administration reached out to Fidel Castro -- a brutal communist dictator -- for normalization, the move was widely hailed as long overdue. However, when Trump accepted a congratulatory phone call from a democratically elected president, the move was decried as an all-out foreign policy disaster. Vice-president-elect Mike Pence summed up the double standard perfectly, saying:

“I mean, it’s striking to me that President Obama would reach out to a murdering dictator in Cuba and be hailed as a hero. And president-elect Donald Trump takes a courtesy call from the democratically elected president of Taiwan and it becomes something of a thing in the media.”

In fact, the old policy consensus of appeasement has only encouraged China to use intimidating rhetoric to gets its way on matters such as Taiwan. After implying that it would readily take back Taiwan by force scaring diplomats around the globe, China has used increasingly uncompromising language to make demands. President Xi Jinping stated in 2013 that disagreements such as Taiwan “cannot be passed on from generation to generation,” effectively imposing a time limit on the issue whose terms are dictated by Beijing.

A tough stance like Trump’s will discourage such intimidation tactics. If Trump puts Taiwan back on the negotiating table, he may be able to gain leverage to strike a larger bargain that could ease tensions in East Asia from North Korea to the South China Sea. Furthermore, if China lets go of its outdated claims on Taiwan, it would be able to loosen some of its policies designed to isolate Taiwan in the international community -- a development that would be good for regional stability overall.

With the call put into proper context, it seems not unreasonable to expect at least cautious support from U.S. allies such as Australia. However, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull declined to weigh in, asserting that he does not comment on U.S. politics, and does not intend to start now. Other Australian officials cited “national interest” as cause for Turnbull’s silence. The problem with an otherwise diplomatic gesture of not meddling in America’s internal affairs is that Australia’s prime minister was motivated by a completely different set of worries: not upsetting Beijing. The decline of Australia’s partnership with the U.S. is afoot.

In recent years, China has made significant inroads into Australia through strategic land leases, such as the Port of Darwin, in close proximity to American ships. Furthermore, Chinese funding has infiltrated deep into Australian society including media, higher education, and research endeavors. In this light, Turnbull’s silence arouses suspicions that Australia has developed conflicts of interest favoring China over traditional allies that could mark the end of a reliable alliance with the United States. 

According to one unnamed Trump adviser, the president-elect envisions Japan beginning to play a more active leadership role in the region. The adviser noted that Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe is "a uniquely placed figure to offer leadership in the alliance". The new role that Trump sees for Japan may be tied to the decline of Australia as a consistent U.S. ally in the region.

President-elect Trump appears committed to standing up to communist China, while at the same time strengthening the special relationship between the United States and Japan. Also, Trump’s conversation with Tsai and the subsequent criticism of the “One China” policy could be a much-needed antidote to decades of stagnant diplomacy that has allowed China to dictate American policy toward Taipei. Critics conveniently overlook the fact that besides showing American strength, the move could provide leverage to promote peace and stability amidst other regional conflicts. Anything less will only send a message to China that America is weak and that intimidation tactics will continue to be an effective strategy.