The Azerbaijani leadership and its Baku-controlled media have remained completely silent on multiple declarations, beginning this past April, regarding the state of Israel's intent to officially annex the Golan Heights and surrounding areas.  Baku should be deeply concerned because the arguments Israel uses to support such annexation pale in contrast with those already in place on the ground in Nagorno-Karabakh, the Armenian-inhabited region that lies between the Republics of Armenia and Azerbaijan.

The Golan Heights

Israel claims Greater Golan was part of ancient Israel, repeats refrains of “we will never give it bac,” “the world must get used to the new reality,” and “who do we give it back to?”  None of these hold water in diplomatic circles.  However, the reality is that the Golan Heights was captured from Syria in the aftermath of the 1967 Arab-Israeli War, and its inhabitants and settlers are subject to Israeli civil and military laws; yet, most importantly, it has remained relatively peaceful.

Negotiations, reported as secret, have taken place between Syria and Israel over the status of the Golan Heights, the latest being sometime in 2010.  Negotiations were cut off when Syria plunged into civil war. Israel was willing to return the Golan Heights to Syria in “exchange for specific security guarantees, including a demonstration that the Assad government would stop acting as an Iranian proxy.” This is significant because it demonstrates that Israel captured Golan, kept it under its jurisdiction, and would indeed return it for strategic security reasons.  It is unknown what the fate of its Jewish population will be; perhaps they would return to Israel.  Conversely today, a full annexation of Golan, Israel argues, also secures its northeastern border.

Nagorno-Karabakh

The region of Nagorno-Karabakh was arbitrarily placed under Azerbaijani jurisdiction by Stalin in 1921 after it was fought over both politically and militarily during and after WWI.  The local population, which had always been majority Armenian by a wide margin, resisted this decision.  Just prior to the breakup of the Soviet Union, in December of 1991, the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region (or Oblast, officially designated as such in mid-1923) overwhelmingly voted in favor of not remaining under Azerbaijani jurisdiction in full legal compliance with Soviet law.  After declaring independence and fighting a war imposed by Azerbaijan, a truce was negotiated in May 1994.  Nagorno-Karabakh has conducted its own affairs ever since then, although aided by the Republic of Armenia.  Since 1994, border areas between Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan have witnessed persistent periodic shelling, sniper fire, and cross-border attacks.

Negotiations have been ongoing between Azerbaijan and Armenia.  Armenia represents the interests of Nagorno-Karabakh because Baku does not recognize the existence of Nagorno-Karabakh as a political entity.  Negotiations have been in a permanent stalemate because the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh claim the right of self-determination and Azerbaijan claims inviolability of its international borders.

Land for Peace

The land offered in the case of Nagorno-Karabakh was all but two western areas that connect Nagorno-Karabakh directly with Armenia, releasing the remaining eastern and southern areas to Azerbaijan if the latter recognized the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh.  The result would be a people having achieved self-determination.

Historical or biblical arguments do not constitute a legally recognized basis for land claims.  Reparatory demands or indigenous self-determination are better arguments, although not sufficient by themselves to unilaterally constitute a change in international political status.  Reparatory claims were used to redraw boundaries in post-WWII Europe.  Factors in favor of indigenous self-determination are more associated with big power interests.  For example, the dismemberment of the Yugoslav Federation eventually resulted in the separation of Kosovo from Serbian jurisdiction, which was designated its own state.  Kosovo has only partial international recognition and its legitimacy is not recognized by Serbia, although Serbia has started a process of normalization.

However, today is 2016 and much has changed in the five years since Israel and Syria ended their Golan negotiations.  If Israel is successful in officially incorporating the Golan Heights, it would create a precedent for those peoples and regions that are in a state of uncertainty, under pressure from prevailing political forces.  Israel's public relations campaign for a full Golan annexation acceptance is sure to draw attention.  

This should surely worry the authorities in Baku who have thus far remained silent.  Baku is silent because Israel purchases about half its crude oil supply from Azerbaijan, and Azerbaijan has purchased just under $2B worth of Israeli high technology drones, support infrastructure, and limited manufacturing licensing of additional technologies.  This creates a dilemma for official Baku, who call the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh separatists, or worse, while selling crude oil to Israel, which seemingly has less of an international legal basis for the incorporation of the Golan Heights than does Nagorno-Karabakh for its self-determination.  During Nagorno-Karabakh negotiations, Azerbaijan might continue to demand jurisdiction over the entire region, but Armenia would note the precedent set in the annexation of the Golan Heights – a clear violability of established borders (Baku’s central argument) – one that Baku never protested.

The accompanied chart provides a relative comparison of arguments used and issues raised with respect to the self-determination of Nagorno-Karabakh and the Israeli annexation of the Golan Heights.  The chart is not intended to be exhaustive.  The "Advantage" column entries are based on how existing realities contribute to the "Argument" or "Issue.”  A “None” means one case has no particular advantage over the other.  While not a strict mathematical endeavor, the case of Nagorno-Karabakh appears stronger than that of an official Israeli annexation of the Golan Heights and surrounding lands.

David Davidian is an Adjunct Lecturer at the American University of Armenia.  He has spent over a decade in technical intelligence analysis at major high technology firms.