Analysts believe that up to 100 million people may watch the first debate on Monday at Hofstra University. Both candidates are vying for the largest potential voting bloc, the millennials of over 75 million, expected to be the smallest percentage watching.

These citizens, who tend to be more liberal, have not taken to Clinton in the numbers that Obama and Sanders secured. Millennials are most worried about finding adequate jobs as their economic prospects have diminished under Obama’s administration. However, this concern is negated by their strong feeling against bigotry represented by race, ethnicity, sexual orientation, and specifically Islamophobia. Hence the anti-Trump rhetoric from Clinton and her surrogates consistently cite him as a racist, homophobic, Islamophobic, anti-Hispanic.

Clinton is viewed as more presidential, steady, and knowledgeable on issues national and international. She represents the present administration, the establishment, continued governmental growth in size and scope, catering to special interests, globalism, and the past. Trump offers a vision of change to a more nationalist, more limited international interventionism, economic revivalism, market-based solutions for problematic issues domestically, limited influence from Wall Street and environmentalists, and a populist orientation from the conservative perspective. Trump is considered more trustworthy, but not by enough. Trump’s reach to millennials resides in his ability to offer economic prospects while not diminishing any other groups (as Bill Clinton intimated a couple of weeks ago).

The NBC Commander-In-Chief forum gave Trump equal footing with Clinton and he demonstrated the ability to answer questions though not as a policy wonk; this is Hillary’s asset, but it bores many listeners. If he is able to appear capable and calmly answer questions despite Clinton’s attempts to rile him, then a draw will be a victory for Trump. He would have stood toe to toe with her and remained standing which would assure those hesitant that he is presidential material. Then for several days the narrative changes from his personality to his ideas, where he most certainly wins as Clinton must defend unfavorable administration policies she supports.

The endorsement by the Tea Party Patriots gives Trump up to three million volunteers, especially critical in the swing states. Winning Pennsylvania makes Trump’s victory more possible; volunteers might get the vote out in the western part of the state to offset the advantage in Philadelphia.

Trump must avoid tweets that are viewed as hostile and nasty. Putting Jennifer Flowers in the front row next to Mark Cuban offsets the psychological advantage Hillary may have had. The endorsement by Ted Cruz may take the Republican percentage of support past 90% and might exceed the 93% that Mitt Romney enjoyed. Kasich’s support could make the difference -- it is hard to understand his argument against Trump in light of his outreach to Blacks and Hispanics, as a unifier.

Polling data, especially from the Washington Post, now shows a statistical tie with Clinton up by 2%. Most interestingly, Johnson has lost support while Trump has gained. Johnson is believed to be the holder of many of the swing millennials. As Johnson appears marginal, especially after his most recent interviews, those leaning Trump millennials will vacate Johnson.

The Clinton machine is pushing the sexist narrative (as done against Rick Lazio) and urging Lester Holt to be the fact checker (ala Candy Crowley) taking the pressure off Hillary to be the “heavy”. She does not excel in that capacity as her sense of humor is limited; her interview with Zach Galifianakis fell flat and did not help her with the millennials. She has trouble connecting with disinterested people. Trump is far more engaging. He wins the enthusiasm gap. However her ground game makes up for this deficit.

The fight for college-educated undecided voters will be won by ensuring them that a thoughtful and steady leader will reverse the decline in future prospects for our country. Millennials desire a balance between work and pleasure. This requires rising salaries and this cannot happen with increased taxes proposed by Hillary. These voters no longer value home ownership as their parents once did.

The wild card for this debate may involve the FBI 2000-page document dump on Friday afternoon. The press has not had time to inoculate her campaign from the many damaging details (five immunity deals, allowing Mills to sit in the interview with Clinton, and the e-mails from Obama using his pseudonym when e-mailing Hillary’s unsecured server). Trump will be able to use these facts on Monday should the need arise.

The incidents in New York, New Jersey, Minnesota, and now Washington State (as the accused is a Turkish Muslim) during the last week revive the question of security and terrorism. Clinton will certainly try to show police prejudice against minorities since North Carolina is now a questionable swing state. But, the millennials may determine that the uncertainly for their future is more likely within the Clinton campaign, making Trump more palatable. As has been said by Bette Davis, it is going to be a bumpy night.