"There's a crisis in the White House.  And to save the election, they'd have to fake a war."  So begins the trailer for the 1997 movie Wag the Dog, in which a political spin-meister and Hollywood producer conjure up a scheme to produce a fake war in order to help the president of the United States get re-elected after he is caught in a sex scandal that could destroy his chances of a second term.  While the plot of the movie is ludicrous due to the impossible nature of conning the electorate in such an outrageous manner, the underlying premise -- that a country will rally behind its president in time of war -- is very real.

But as vile as some of the Obama campaign's tactics have been with accusations that Mitt Romney is a felon, murderer, and tax cheat, among other outrageous accusations, it is clear that David Axelrod and his team, with multiple opportunities staring them in the face, will not voluntarily take the country to war in order to win a second term.  In fact, they have proven themselves quite dovish in the face of numerous human rights atrocities, such as those occurring daily in Syria, that scream out for American leadership.

But Obama may actually be handed a gift in October, and depending upon what he does with that opportunity, it may provide him with a guaranteed win on November 6.  The Washington Free Beacon is reporting that according to U.S. intelligence experts, Israel is gearing up for an October attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.  And while Obama has done everything in his power to prevent Israel from conducting a military strike, including leaking various national security secrets pertaining to such an attack, affording Iran time to further its goals through prolonged and ineffectual diplomatic games, and withholding sophisticated weaponry that would increase the chances of a successful Israeli strike[i], Israel may not have a choice but to proceed without a nod or assistance from Washington.  But why October?

Anyone who has been following Barack Obama's record on the U.S.-Israel relationship understands that Obama is the least supportive president when it comes to this strategic and longstanding relationship than any of his predecessors, including Jimmy Carter.  For anyone who questions this statement of fact (and the Democrats are doing their best to lie about its veracity), Discover The Networks has produced an extensive list of Obama's "words, actions, and key affiliations vis à vis Israel not only during his first 32 months in the White House, but during the two decades preceding his presidency as well" which support the "perception that Obama is not seriously committed to protecting Israel's welfare."  And the Emergency Committee for Israel has produced a short film entitled Daylight: The Story of Obama and Israel that further illustrates the reality that Obama has been anything but a friend to our strongest ally in the Mideast.

And certainly the Israelis do not need to be told that the U.S. president will not have their back when the chips are down.  After all, Obama has shown their prime minister complete disrespect, blamed the problems in the Mideast -- and certainly the lack of peace agreement with the Palestinians -- on the building of settlements rather than Palestinian intransigence and violence, facilitated the takeover of the Egyptian government by the Muslim Brotherhood and hosted that terrorist organization in the White House, and sat almost completely idly by while Iran marches to nuclear capability as it simultaneously calls for Israel's annihilation.

Israelis are survivors, not fools.  They, like the rest of the world, watched Obama whisper to the Russian president to be patient as he was caught off-mike, stating, "This is my last election.  After my election I have more flexibility."  As Mike Gonzolez of the Heritage Foundation described it:

Here, in essence, is what it appears to be: this was our commander in chief in league with an anti-American autocrat to dupe the American public until after it's too late. What makes it even worse is that the issue at hand -- missile defense -- has to do with protecting the American people against the likes of Russia.

So if the POTUS is willing to bargain away Americans' national security, just imagine what an unleashed Obama, who has already proven to be unfriendly to Israel, will do in a second term as that country's survival becomes ever more threatened by surrounding hostile forces.  I would imagine that Bibi Netanyahu, the guy whom Obama was again caught off-mike complaining about having to deal with, has about as much faith in Obama's promises of financial, diplomatic, and military support if only Israel will wait until after the election to strike as do all of the other people who have been thrown under the Obama bus and lied to in the name of political expediency.

So as Israeli officials analyze their intelligence and prepare their citizens with supplies of gas masks, bomb shelters, and other emergency survival kits, Obama intentionally ignores not only the Israeli reports, but also the most recent information from his own National Intelligence team.  According to Ha'aretz, Obama is keeping "under wraps" an NIE report that supports Israel's estimates and concludes that Iran has made significant progress toward military nuclear capability.

And as the clock ticks, Obama is calculating that the faux promises and behind-the-scenes pressure from the leader of the free world, and only proven friend of the tiny country that causes him angst, will ultimately result in the Israelis tabling a strike and working on his timetable.  And to that end, Obama has likely miscalculated.  For Israelis no longer trust the United States under the present administration.  If they believe that come October, Obama has a solid chance of a second term, it is probable that they will endeavor upon a military intervention to prevent Iran's nuclear capability.

Israel cannot take a chance that Obama wins, for if that occurs, Israel knows that Obama will most assuredly not provide humanitarian aid in the face of retaliatory strikes, military aid to help resupply the IDF with equipment and arms it may need to complete what it was forced to start on its own, and diplomatic cover at the U.N. as the world condemns the attack, as it most certainly will.  The world may breathe a sigh of relief that once again the Israelis accomplished what no other country had the nerve to do, but those thoughts will remain the stuff of off-mike whispers never intended as a defense of the Jewish state.

Barack Obama is no fool, either.  He may be ideologically driven and politically motivated, but he also wants to win a second term.  If Israel is forced to strike, Obama and his advisers understand that the majority of Americans support Israel and will expect the administration to do everything in its power to ensure Israel's success.  In such a case, even if Obama does the bare minimum to help Israel -- vetoing a resolution against her at the U.N., ensuring safe airspace over Iraq and perhaps refueling at U.S. military bases in the region, ensuring that the Strait of Hormuz remain open and safe for oil tanker passage, and otherwise publicly supporting her in the face of international condemnation -- he will likely claim full credit for the success of the mission, claim that he gave the green light and was always in favor of the plan, and lie once again to the American people in a speech full of "I"s and "me"s.

And assuming that an Israeli attack occurs sometime in late October, too close to the election for an Obama bounce to subside and gas prices to fly sky high, Obama may very well win due to a wagging of the dog he did his best to avoid.

And therein lies the irony of Obama forcing Israel to put its citizens and soldiers at risk to do something that he should be authorizing the U.S. military to do.  Israel may clinch Obama's second term while ensuring its own short-term survival.  As the Robert DeNiro character says in the movie, "[a]nd if there ain't no war, then you, my friend, can go home and prematurely take up golf."  Sadly, Obama prematurely took up golf instead of preventing Iran from going nuclear, and because of that, he may not be going home.

[i] As stated in the WFB article:

One element of leverage fro the administration in dissuading Israel to attack was outlined in the recent meetings with Israeli officials who were told that a U.S.-supported strike against Iran possibly could involve advanced weaponry from the U.S. arsenal, including a new Air Force conventional bomb designed to blast deeply buried and hardened targets.