PrintFebruary 8, 2011
Republicans: Boxed In on the Budget?
A budget impasse looms, and Democrats smell opportunity -- a chance to regain a little of the mojo they lost following a beat-down last November at the hands of the tea party movement and their candidates.
After meeting with White House Budget Director Jack Lew, Democrats have apparently been hardening into a no-compromise policy of refusal to cut anything from the 2011 budget, potentially forcing a showdown with Republicans in early March, when they must consider raising the debt ceiling. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) took the time to excoriate the $32 billion in cuts proposed by Wisconsin Senator Paul Ryan (R) as "unworkable" and "draconian," and deferred to Budget Committee leader Senator Kent Conrad (D-N.D.).
As could be expected, Conrad seems inclined to recommend little or no budget-cutting this year. "It is unwise to do much in 2011, that was conclusion of all the bipartisan commissions," he said in an interview with The Hill.
As could be expected, Conrad seems inclined to recommend little or no budget-cutting this year. "It is unwise to do much in 2011, that was conclusion of all the bipartisan commissions," he said in an interview with The Hill.
The "commissions" are the 18-member fiscal commission set up by President Obama last year, chaired by former Republican Wyoming senator Alan Simpson and former Clinton chief of staff Erskine Bowles, and a task force co-chaired by Alice Rivlin, former Clinton budget director, and former New Mexico senator, Republican Pete Domenici.
Democrats have come to realize that digging in their heels will put the Republican majority in the uncomfortable position of either caving on the issue and deferring serious budget-cutting until 2012, or going all-in and risking a shutdown of the government.
For their part, Republicans will have to choose their poison, because before this is finished playing out, and unless some new Republican strategy emerges, there will be divisions within not only the Republican Party, but within the Tea Party movement itself.
Republican leadership may ultimately advise their freshman to vote in favor of raising the debt ceiling, chastened as they may be by the specter of the 1995 shutdown gambit that stalled the momentum of the Gingrich revolution and shifted the political tides in favor of President Clinton. However, to do so would risk the howls of a Tea Party movement that is sensitized to even the slightest hint of backtracking by their newly-elected representatives -- so many of whom were elected after campaigning on promises to slash the budget.
Democrats have come to realize that digging in their heels will put the Republican majority in the uncomfortable position of either caving on the issue and deferring serious budget-cutting until 2012, or going all-in and risking a shutdown of the government.
For their part, Republicans will have to choose their poison, because before this is finished playing out, and unless some new Republican strategy emerges, there will be divisions within not only the Republican Party, but within the Tea Party movement itself.
Republican leadership may ultimately advise their freshman to vote in favor of raising the debt ceiling, chastened as they may be by the specter of the 1995 shutdown gambit that stalled the momentum of the Gingrich revolution and shifted the political tides in favor of President Clinton. However, to do so would risk the howls of a Tea Party movement that is sensitized to even the slightest hint of backtracking by their newly-elected representatives -- so many of whom were elected after campaigning on promises to slash the budget.
Tea Partiers, faced with the harsh realities of governing, will then be forced to look in the mirror and do some self-appraisal. What do they do if the man or woman they helped to elect with their blood, sweat, tears, and dollars decides that this is not the time or place to draw a line in the sand? For the most part, individual Tea Party groups throughout the country have avoided divisions within their own ranks simply because they are all built around the same three simple principles: fiscal sanity, free markets, and a constitutionally limited government. By keeping it so basic, their tent was large enough to hold conservatives of all stripes.
That they were all fiscal hawks was a given; however, what was never explored was the methodology by which they expected their candidates to slash the deficit in the short term. Now that issue must be faced, as interest on the debt will by itself push spending beyond the current ceiling -- even if there is not one more dime spent.
There are those within the Tea Party movement who will insist on a "damn the torpedoes" approach, that what is needed is the kind of tough love that a shutdown would engender. Default? Bring it on, they will say. Better to face this now, to tear it down and build it up again.
Such hard-liners, preferring to strike while the iron is hot, pointedly ignore the potential impact of the indignant wails that are sure to emanate from Democrats and the mainstream media as they accuse Republicans of putting politics before country. Too, they are disregarding the real-world fallout attached to actually causing the government to shut down and defaulting on the debt, should these things come to pass.
Many freshman Republican representatives, on the other hand, may see things differently. Though they recognize that they were, in part, swept into office on a wave of Tea Party, anti-spending enthusiasm, they may not wish to risk their political futures by attempting a maneuver that turned out disastrously the last time it was executed. Additionally, should they vote against raising the debt ceiling, they will most likely be voting against the wishes of their leadership.
Even Senate Tea Party Caucus member Rand Paul (R-Ky.) said that though he finds it unacceptable to keep government funding at 2010 levels, he is not advocating a showdown over the issue. "I think shutting down the government is a mistake. Nobody really wants that," he said in an interview after his election.
Freshman Republican Representative Michael Grimm (NY-13) defeated popular incumbent Democrat Michael McMahon with the enthusiastic support of the local Staten Island Tea Party. The Gulf War veteran and former Marine, with firsthand experience navigating minefields (the kind that actually explode) in the Middle East, will have to tiptoe across a different kind of minefield now -- a political one.
"When we discussed the issue at our regular staff meeting," said Tea Party volunteer Russ Paladino, "our group was practically split down the middle -- even our co-founders came down on opposite sides of the debate."
For the Dems, if they refuse to compromise and hold the line against budget cuts, it appears to be a win-win situation -- one of the few they have enjoyed since the election of President Obama. If the Republicans hold firm and risk a doomsday-scenario shutdown, or even worse, a default on the debt, they risk plummeting approval ratings barely three months into their terms. Indeed, a poll taken in December of 2010 by CNN indicated that more than 70% of the American people would consider a government shutdown that lasted longer than a few days to be a "crisis" or a "major problem."
However, should they vote to raise the debt ceiling, they will be risking the wrath of some within the very movement that was responsible for their election in the first place. And even if the Tea Partiers themselves don't think in terms of being "thrown under the bus," there are those on the left who will be gleefully willing to point it out to them.
Frank Santarpia is the co-founder of the Staten Island Tea Party and can be reached at taxdayteapartysiny@gmail.com. The group's website is at www.teapartyinfo.com.
