"It ain't over till it's over," said the philosopher Yogi Berra.  As every sports fan knows, momentum can change in a hurry.  The opponent can make a costly mistake that opens the door, a key play can give your team the edge, or you may simply catch a lucky break that changes the course of the game.

In what has become the defining issue of the moment, President Obama and the Democrats are attempting to paint passage of ObamaCare as inevitable, and survey ratings that many Americans expect some form of ObamaCare to pass.  There are many hurdles to be scaled, however, before the Democrats' health care utopia is reached.

Since the President has issued only platitudes and misstatements regarding health care reform, let us begin by defining ObamaCare as any government takeover of health care that passes Congress. The President himself may be the biggest impediment to passage of a bill.  The President boxed himself into a corner by saying he wanted a bill from Congress before the August recess.  He saturated the airwaves flogging health care and demonizing opposition, with the result that polls are trending down, and Obama is losing his luster. 

Rahm Emanuel, in his haste not to waste a crisis, used huge portions of Obama's political capital on the stimulus bill and on the now stalled attempt at cap and trade, with many in Congress asked to make difficult votes to support those bills.  Emanuel and Obama made a critical mistake by not going for the kill on health care earlier in the game.  At this point Americans have seen the non-results of the stimulus bill and are questioning Obama's ability to lead on the economy. 

On Afghanistan the President has dithered and stalled on his hand-picked field commander's request for more troops.  The result, according to ABC News, is:

Barack Obama's ratings for handling the war in Afghanistan have dropped sharply.  Forty-five percent now approve of the president's handling of the situation, down by 10 points in a month, 15 points since August and 18 points from its peak last spring. His approval rating on Afghanistan has fallen farther than on any other issue in ABC News/Washington Post polls this year.

• Majority Leader Harry Reid intends to use the"nuclear option" if necessary.
• Reid supports the public option, and is working behind closed doors on a combined Senate bill
• Sen. Roland Burris (D-Ill.) said this week he "would not support a bill that does not have a public option."
• House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is also strongly pushing a robust, or medicare-like, public option.
• Rep. John Conyers (D-Mich.) has said that the President "can't get 218 without a public option."
• The Senate Finance Committee voted against a public option.
• The House bill includes a tax on high incomes, which is opposed in the Senate.
• The Senate Finance bill includes a tax on high-end insurance plans, which is opposed by organized labor.

• The Democrats blocked amendments to prevent taxpayer-funded coverage for abortion and for illegals.
• The Catholic bishops will oppose any bill that does not preclude using taxpayer funds forabortion.
• It has been reported on CNN that illegals could be required to have insurance but not receive subsidies
• Some businesses may avoid hiring poor people altogether, to avoid having to pay for subsidized insurance.
• Colorado insurance execs" are warning that current proposals could cause a 'system collapse.' "
• An insurance company study by Price Waterhouse released last week indicates that under the Baucus bill costs will increase dramatically, with family premiums going up by $4,000 by 2019. A Baucus spokesman calls the study a "hatchet job."
• Insurance companies are now targeted by Obama, and have begun running ads against ObamaCare.
• Seniors, a major factor in mid-term elections, will bear the brunt of Medicare cost reductions.
• Johnson & Johnson executives said the tax on medical devices is "too high and could cost jobs."

"Snowe is echoing the GOP line that Democrats are rushing reform, a charge Dems usually answer by accusing Republicans of trying to slow-walk reform to the gallows. But the criticism will likely hold more weight coming from swing-vote Snowe, who Democrats have gone out of their way to accommodate throughout the process."

And on the House side, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer raised the prospect that the bill might slip past Christmas and into 2010 - which could be politically disastrous for President Barack Obama, who is trying to pass health reform this year to put some distance between the vote and the midterm elections.