It’s the turnout, maybe
In appraising the presidential polling data, let’s remember that in another throw-the-bums-out year – the famous race between the Democrat liberal Mario Cuomo and the Republican George Pataki for governor of New York – all the polls close to the election foretold a major victory for Cuomo, one by as much as 14%.
But when the dust settled, Pataki won handily. As they watched the numbers come in, Mrs. Cuomo asked her husband, “How could such a thing happen?” He replied, “Our people are not turning out.”
The question this year is whether the revulsion for Obama-Clinton or maybe just the Clintons is sufficient to walk that cow back into the barn much the same as happened to Cuomo.
It’s anybody’s guess, but the huge advantage Pataki had in ’94 is that nobody knew who he was. In others words, the push against a candidate came from only one direction. This year, Trump has been so demonized by the Clinton campaign and Clinton’s remuda (a herd of horses that have been saddle-broken, from which ranch hands choose their mounts for the day), the MSM, that there’s pressure from both ends of the spectrum.