Thin Margins for Same-Sex Marriage

Doug Mainwaring
Election night results from the four states with same-sex marriage on the ballot in one form or another tell a tale: 

State

Voted FOR Same-Sex Marriage

Maine

53%

Maryland

52%

Minnesota

51%

Washington

52%

Here's what is really interesting: these are liberal states, ranging in shades of blue from indigo to cobalt.  The effort to defend the definition of marriage outperformed the GOP ticket in every single case.

State

Voted AGAINST Same-Sex Marriage

Voted FOR Romney/Ryan

Maine

47%

41%

Maryland

48%

37%

Minnesota

49%

45%

Washington

48%

43%

The difference between the percentage of those who voted against same-sex marriage in each of these states and those who voted for Romney/Ryan represents the minimum percentage of Obama/Biden supporters who are against redefining marriage.

In my home state, Maryland, a minimum of 23% [100% - (37%/48%) = 23%] of the opposition to same-sex marriage came from Obama/Biden supporters.  Earlier in the year, the Maryland House of Delegates only narrowly passed same-sex marriage legislation with just one vote to spare, and that only came with lots of arm-twisting.

These are not overwhelming victories representing a sea change in public attitude toward same-sex marriage.  These are tactical wins.

Election night results from the four states with same-sex marriage on the ballot in one form or another tell a tale: 

State

Voted FOR Same-Sex Marriage

Maine

53%

Maryland

52%

Minnesota

51%

Washington

52%

Here's what is really interesting: these are liberal states, ranging in shades of blue from indigo to cobalt.  The effort to defend the definition of marriage outperformed the GOP ticket in every single case.

State

Voted AGAINST Same-Sex Marriage

Voted FOR Romney/Ryan

Maine

47%

41%

Maryland

48%

37%

Minnesota

49%

45%

Washington

48%

43%

The difference between the percentage of those who voted against same-sex marriage in each of these states and those who voted for Romney/Ryan represents the minimum percentage of Obama/Biden supporters who are against redefining marriage.

In my home state, Maryland, a minimum of 23% [100% - (37%/48%) = 23%] of the opposition to same-sex marriage came from Obama/Biden supporters.  Earlier in the year, the Maryland House of Delegates only narrowly passed same-sex marriage legislation with just one vote to spare, and that only came with lots of arm-twisting.

These are not overwhelming victories representing a sea change in public attitude toward same-sex marriage.  These are tactical wins.