Note: When you're an incumbent and trying to shore up support in a state you won by 11 points, things are not looking good for you.

President Obama will visit Green Bay tomorrow in a sure sign that the campaign is worried about holding Wisconsin. Romney will visit the state on Friday.

The Obama campaign has also found a reason to spend a million dollars in Michigan - a state Obama won by 16 points in 2008. The latest Detroit News poll shows the president with less than a 3 point lead:

Obama's lead over Romney has shrunk to just under 3 points, 47.7 percent to 45 percent, with 3.8 percent undecided, according to a new Detroit News/WDIV Local 4 poll of likely voters. Obama's lead was 6.7 points earlier this month and has eroded to within the poll's 4 percentage point margin of error. It's the smallest advantage for the Democratic president during the Michigan campaign.

"Mitt Romney's numbers ... are where they would need to be if he hopes to pull off an upset next week," said Richard Czuba of Glengariff Group Inc., which conducted the poll. "But the question is: Is there enough for a final push?"

The Obama campaign Tuesday announced its first network TV ads will begin airing this week in Michigan. Neither candidate had bought airtime here, but earlier Tuesday, Romney's super PAC launched a $2.2 million advertising final blitz in Michigan.

That brings Restore Our Future's investment in Michigan post-primary up to nearly $10 million, according to the PAC - which until now had been unanswered by the Obama campaign.

Obama surged in Michigan to a double-digit lead after the Democratic National Convention that put a spotlight on the rescue of General Motors Corp. and Chrysler Inc., and on women's health, but the president's lead dwindled following a listless first debate with the Republican that voters here deemed a clear Romney win.

Watch the principles over the weekend. If either Romney or Ryan pays a visit to Michigan, you know they seriously think that the state is in play. Otherise, the state could end up looking more like 2004 when John Kerry won by less than 4 points.

Either way, getting Obama to spend money there is golden.