The Iranian ships which were supposed to arrive days ago have not done so, and the Lebanese ships filled with women do not appear to have left either. Reports in the Arab press indicate Lebanon will not allow the ships to leave port.

If Iran, Turkey and Hezbollah do not manage to spark a confrontation in the coming days, Israel will have weathered the storm because the easing of the land blockade likely will suffice to quiet European governments and the Obama administration.

The end result is that the Flotilla confrontation could be a disaster for Hamas, and ultimately a victory for Israel.

Turkey also is a big loser, as it now faces the choice of backing down in its confrontation with Israel or sparking another confrontation which further damages its ties with the West.