PrintAugust 14, 2009
Can the GOP win in 2010?
It is a very steep hill to climb given all the variables, but Byron York writing in the Examiner thinks it's doable:
Ask them about it, and many Democrats will point to the continued personal popularity of Barack Obama. But that's not the story. "I think what's going to happen is Obama's going to be fine, and the Democrats in Congress are going to get their asses kicked in 2010," says one Democratic strategist who prefers not to be named. "This is following a curve like the Clinton years: take on really controversial things early, fail, or succeed partially, ask Democrats to take really tough votes, and then lose. A lot of guys are going to get beat, but the president has time to recover."
Most Republican hope focuses on the House of Representatives, but even there they have a huge job ahead. Democrats control 256 seats, and Republicans 178. Forty seats would have to change hands for Republicans to take charge.
On the other hand, 52 seats turned over when the GOP won the House in 1994. And even if Republicans don't get the 40 they need in 2010, they could dramatically narrow the gap between the parties, giving Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the Democratic leadership less room to operate.
The polls are definitely moving in the GOP's direction. Just look at the Real Clear Politics average of the generic ballot question, which asks whether, if the election were held today, you would vote for your local Democratic or Republican candidate for Congress. It's been dominated by Democrats for the last few years -- until now.
There's a lot of open space between now and November, 2010. Much could happen that would reflect badly on the GOP or well on the Democrats. But what looked impossible in May can be dimly perceived on the horizon.
One thing is clear; the health care debate has changed the game and not to the Democrat's advantage. In fact, the more they try to paint opponents as racists, or fascists, or "mobs," the more the public seems to disagree with them.
Of course, self destructing Democrats are only part of the equation. Republicans must come up with an agenda that the American people will support. So far, that hasn't happened although one would expect them to formulate one before the first of the year.
The Democrats are becoming the toxic party now. Where they'll be in a year will determine the result in 2010.
Hat Tip: Ed Lasky
