Barack Obama now has a negative approval score for the first time since his victory last November: 49% approve, 51% disapprove. Among those who feel strongly one way or the other, 30% strongly approve, 38% strongly disapprove.

I think the Gates-Crowley arrest controversy is killing Obama.  So far , he is demonstrating he is not big enough to  admit he blew it by calling the cops stupid,  and pull back. Fine with me -- if he wants to see his poll numbers continue to crumble, which will ensure that his unworkable and ill-considered health care reform proposal fails, I am all for it.  

A few more Rasmussen numbers: 25% think the stimulus  worked. 53% oppose the President's health care reform bill. 

Poll numbers for Democrats running in 2009 and 2010 are also starting to crumble . Barbara Boxer is now up only 4% on Carly Fiorina. In Connecticut, friend of the bankrupt banks Chris Dodd, trails his GOP opponent Rob Simmons by 9%. 

In New Jersey, Governor Corzine, who has spent more money, and more of his own money, on state campaigns than any other candidate in American history, is now 15% behind his GOP opponent. Of course, given the Torricelli model, perhaps Frank Lautenberg will replace Corzine on the ballot in October, and then serve as both Governor and Senator.

The people of American understand that the Democrats run everything in Washington, since that profile in courage, Arlen Specter switched horses. By the way, Specter's numbers are also collapsing-he leads Republican Toomey by only 1% now..

Obama can blather, as he did in  his news conference, about the GOP's  obstruction, but the GOP has no power to block any Obama initiative at this point -- neither in the House, nor the Senate.  So if the bills (health care, cap and trade in the Senate) are stalled, it is because there are enough Democrats in both bodies who understand the danger of following the Obama-Nancy Pelsosi-Henry Waxman ship crashing into the left bank of the river.  

This would have been impossible to say a month ago,but Democrat-held Senate seats that are now in play next year include: Illinois, Connecticut, Delaware, Colorado, California, , Pennsylvania, Nevada and maybe New York and Arkansas. The GOP will have to work to hold open seats in Ohio, New Hampshire and Missouri, and if Jim Bunning runs again, Kentucky is almost certainly gone.  Lousiana (Vitter) and  North Carolina (Burr) are not locked up either.  But the playing field has shifted dramatically in a few months.  Of course, things can change from how they look now, but they could change in either direction.

Obama has likely not bottomed,  Nor have the Democrats.