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PrintOctober 29, 2008
Good news for McCain from latest Rasmussen poll
The Presidential race is getting tighter. The most respected daily tracking poll (most heavily weighted by Nate Silver at his fivethrtyeight.com site) is Rasmussen. Today, his 3 day, 3,000 sample size survey shows Obama up 50-47 .
Yesterday, the lead was 51-46. A week ago, it was 52-44. Rasmussen says the race is closer than it has been in five weeks.
My guess is that in last night's survey of 1,000 voters, the race was about even. Many Obama voters have already shown up. If the perception catches hold that the race is tightening, that will help turnout for McCain.
Obama is planning the big victory party, and is working on his Inaugural Address. He is still the heavy favorite, and much has to go right in many states for McCain to win, but McCain is still alive, and has a wind at his back for the first time in quite a while.
As much as the media want Obama to win, they like a horse race that is close; it gets more people to watch and read about the election. So the more they start talking about a tightening race, the more they will reinforce that perception. and I think help McCain. The McCain campaign has released its strategy memo for the last few days, which shows where McCain is making gains.
Meanwhile at the Daily Kos, the Kossacks are beginning to freak out, as Obama's victory looks a bit less inevitable.
