Iraq Stock Exchange Index takes off again

By Greg Richards

Here is a graph of the Iraq Stock Exchange Index (ISX):

Iraq stocke exchange

Since the beginning of 2008, the ISX is up 9%, a gain which essentially started in the middle of February. The purple horizontal line identifies the period between the attack on the Golden Mosque of Samarra in February 2006 and the full implementation of the surge in early July 2007.

There was a remarkable recovery in the ISX in the summer of last year as General Petraeus' strategy became effective. In the financial community we would say that that move - a gain of 60% from July to September - was digested over the next several months. A new move now appears to be occurring.

While there are certainly crosscurrents in Iraq and a plethora of vectors, including unemployment, refugees, enemy activity, sectarian distrust and infrastructure insufficiency, still, the advance in the ISX means that some are betting money on a brighter future for the country.

In the past the ISX has been a good indicator of the progress of the war, both on the downside and on the upside.