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December 30, 2007

Iowa Polls all over the Map

By Rick Moran

While the numbers may be wildly different, two polls that came out today have shown Mitt Romney making a comeback and the Democratic race too close to call.

A McClatchy-MSNBC poll shows the Democrats locked in a tight three way race

  • Former Sen. Edwards of North Carolina has the support of 24 percent;
  • Sen. Clinton of New York has 23 percent;
  • Sen. Obama of Illinois has 22 percent;
  • Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico has 12 percent;
  • Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware has 8 percent;
  • Sen. Chris Dodd of Connecticut has 2 percent;
  • Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio has 1 percent.
  • Undecided: 8 percent.

    • Among Republicans, Governor Mitt Romney has pulled back in front of Mike Huckabee after trailing for several weeks:


  • Former Massachusetts Gov. Romney has 27 percent;
  • Former Arkansas Gov. Huckabee has 23 percent;
  • Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has 14 percent;
  • Sen. John McCain of Arizona has 13 percent;
  • Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani has 5 percent;
  • Rep. Ron Paul of Texas has 5 percent;
  • Rep. Duncan Hunter of California has 1 percent.
  • Undecided: 12 percent.

    • Contrast those numbers with this Reuters/C-Span/Zogby poll released on Sunday. Hillary Clinton is in the lead for the Democrats:

    Clinton, a New York senator, led Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois 31 percent to 27 percent, with former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards a close third at 24 percent and no other Democratic contender registering in double-digits.

    For Republicans, Romney and Huckabee are virtually tied with John McCain a distant third:

    Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor, held a statistically insignificant one-point edge over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 29 percent to 28 percent. Arizona Sen. John McCain was a distant third with 11 percent.


    So how close are the races really? Polls are snapshots of a given moment in a campaign. It appears that the polls reflect the tremendous volatility on both sides. Althought the declared undecideds is smaller in both polls than others, at least a third of Iowans would be willing to switch their vote before next Thursday's caucuses.

    That means that there still could be a surprise or two before all is said and done.

    That means that
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