Looking at the morning paper last Monday gave me a start, and not just because color photos of a wild-eyed Hillary Clinton with a pasted on smile still shock.  The Washington Post headline screamed that Hillary had won the Democratic nomination, with stories following on the "historic" achievement.  What's this? I thought – did I sleep for three days?  Is it Wednesday, with the results from the California primary already in? 

The Post along with the rest of the mainstream media anointed Clinton the winner without giving poor Bernie Sanders a last-gasp West Coast chance.  And, generally speaking, what critical analysis there was about Hillary's sudden historic victory assumed that it was created by unallocated superdelegates to pre-empt a possible Sanders victory in California.  That is almost certainly true.  The other thing Clinton and her supporters in the media want to do by anointing her as early as possible is to pre-empt Hillary's other nemesis, the FBI.

There was never much doubt that Hillary would win the nomination even if Sanders pulled out a victory in California.  So whatever damage control the early victory announcement produced would have been cosmetic in any event.  However, with respect to the FBI's ongoing investigation of Clinton's home-brewed email server, the stakes are far higher and the early claim of victory more significant.  The FBI is investigating likely violations of federal laws governing official record-keeping, maintaining classified information, evidence-tampering, obstruction of justice, and possible pay-for-play bribery through the Clinton foundation.  Prosecution of any one of these infractions could reroute Hillary's march to the Oval Office into a penitentiary.

Hillary knows that actual prosecution by the Obama administration's Justice Department is a very long shot, even assuming that the FBI refers charges.  Nonetheless, the mere referral of charges by the FBI to Justice would damage her campaign and increase doubt among a voting public that already overwhelmingly regards her as dishonest. 

What FBI director James Comey intends is perhaps the greatest conundrum in Washington these days.  Is he playing Hamlet to Hillary's Claudius, introspective, doubtful, and unwilling to strike the killing blow?  Is he just being a careful apolitical policeman?  Or is he a political hack who will do what's best for Jim Comey?  Perhaps it's a bit of all three.  Whatever the truth, it is in Hillary's best interest to discourage Comey as much as possible.  Her early claim to be the Democrat nominee serves that purpose.

If Comey is an honest policeman, the best time for him to have acted was before Hillary claimed the nomination.  Then he would only have been referring charges against another – albeit notorious – private citizen.  After the nomination, Hillary becomes not only the standard bearer of one of America's two great political parties, but a "historic" figure as the first woman to do so.  As such, it behooved both Hillary and her backers in the media to reach that point ASAP. 

As far as Hillary, the mainstream media, and the Democratic Party are concerned, that has now happened, even if the convention is still many weeks away.  As a political and media matter, an FBI referral at this point will be against not only the Democratic Party's presidential nominee, but also a historic figure, an affront to the American political system and women everywhere.  Hillary is now well positioned to play the old Clinton game, one she perfected long ago in defense of her husband's transgressions: that of the "vast right wing conspiracy" that through a Republican FBI director would derail the first female nominee of a major political party in American history. 

No matter what Comey does with this case, he will face accusations of political motivations.  But such charges are more effective when the race is down to a one-on-one Democrat vs. Republican, and suddenly a Republican FBI director (no matter that he was appointed by a Democrat president) drops a criminal referral on the "historic" Democrat nominee.

Was Comey planning to refer the charges before the convention and thinking he had a few more weeks to get it done?  Did Hillary get wind of it and then get the last few super-delegates she needed to declare, so that she would not only dampen the effect of a Sanders victory in California, but make it more difficult for Comey to refer charges?  Both suppositions, though unprovable, are reasonably likely. 

That Obama quickly weighed in and endorsed Clinton supports this view.  Josh Earnest's ridiculously cynical and dishonest answer to a question about it at a recent new conference confirms this.  When asked if Obama's endorsement compromised the FBI investigation by telegraphing his view on the matter to the agents involved, Earnest spun out a long-winded lie that amounted to "no," but what he really said was this: "yes, of course they know the president's views, and the president's opinion has not changed – he has no intention of allowing the Justice Department to prosecute Mrs. Clinton.  So those agents are wasting their time and risking their careers."

So what happens now?  If Comey is an honest policeman, he has to refer charges to Justice against Hillary eventually, and the sooner the better.  That may mean that some matters remain under investigation (e.g., the Clinton Foundation) while others relating to the mishandling of federal records and classified documents (and possibly obstruction of justice) should be ready to go.  The closer to the election, the better the Democrat case that the referral is politically inspired.

There has been a fair bit of speculation lately that an FBI referral will send tremors through the Democrats, and they will dump Hillary in favor of a Biden/Warren ticket or suchlike.  While anything is possible – particularly in this strange election year – this is still highly unlikely.  The future tends to resemble the past, and if the past is any indication, Clinton, the Democrats, and their media enablers will react with fury to such a referral and attack Comey rather than abandon Hillary.

Obama, the Democrats, and the mainstream media are armoring up Clinton (against the FBI and other threats) for a final, brutal, knock-down-drag-out fight for the presidency.  The Clintons do not back down, admit wrongdoing, or give up, and Obama is unlikely to force the issue.  Everyone knows that Hillary is a weak and corrupt candidate, but Obama, the Democrats, and the media think the Republicans are worse off.  Unless Trump and the Republicans get their act together, the their enemies will probably be proved right.