The Solid Conservative Majority

Two polls in January 2014 confirm what I have written about for quite a while: America -- and this means not just Flyover Country, but nearly all of America -- is solidly conservative.

The Battleground Poll shows that a very solid majority of Americans describe themselves as conservative.  This poll has been remarkably accurate in predicting the outcome of elections.  The internal data of the Battleground Poll, unlike many other polls, is publicly reported. 

Since 2002, there have been more than twenty Battleground Poll surveys reported by George Washington University, and the results of these polls show big swings in the support for political parties, national priorities, and policy positions.  Yet in every single case, respondents to the Battleground Poll overwhelmingly describe themselves as "conservative."

Historically, polls have seldom asked direct questions about ideology, but an interesting exception in past decades has been the American National Election Studies Data Sourcebook, published by Harvard University Press.  The 1980 edition of this publication is little more than hundreds of pages of dry data, presented without editorial opinion.  Harvard is not hotbed of conservatism.  If there were any bias, surely it would be to make conservatism look like a despised minority within American society.

The data of Table 2.22 on page 95 of the sourcebook presents the percentage of Americans who describe themselves as "liberal" and "conservative" for the four years reported: 1972 (27% conservative and 19% liberal), 1974 (26% conservative and 21% liberal), 1976 (25% conservative and 15% liberal), and 1978 (28% conservative and 20% liberal).  The data of Table 2.23 on the same page reports survey results from even-numbered years since 1964, and this data, although calibrated obscurely, shows the same preponderance of conservatives over liberals for each even numbered year from 1964 to 1978.

Recently Andrew Cuomo spoke about how conservative politicians are out of step with New York State voters.  The January 2014 Gallup Poll, which reports state-by-state how respondents identify themselves by ideology, suggests that Cuomo is wrong about his own constituents.  More New Yorkers in that poll call themselves "conservative" than "liberal."  All of the Gallup Poll results dating back to August 2009 show that more New Yorkers call themselves "conservative" than "liberal."

What is stark about this state-by-state poll is that nearly every state in the nation has more conservatives than liberals.  What follows are the poll dates and those few states in the particular poll that have more self-described liberals than self-described conservatives: August 2009 (none), February 2010 (none), August 2010 (Rhode Island), February 2011 (none), February 2012 (Massachusetts), February 2013 (Rhode Island, Massachusetts), and January 2014 (Massachusetts, Vermont, Hawaii).

SURVEY USA is a compilation of polls conducted by a number of separate media outlets in different parts of America.  In this compilation, there are a numbers of polls in recent years conducted by WABC and other affiliated New York stations, or by the Rochester Democrat Chronicle.  The latest poll is a WABC poll conducted in October 2012.  This poll reports that 25% of New Yorkers call themselves "conservative" and that an equal 25% of New Yorkers describe themselves as "liberal."  The previous five polls for the state recorded by SURVEY USA show in each poll that there are more conservatives than liberals in New York.

This ought to be very good news for conservatives in America.  Cuomo, according to polls conducted by news organizations that are not conservative at all, is wildly out of touch with the people of his state.  His remark that conservative politicians are unwelcome in New York does not reflect how ordinary New Yorkers feel, but rather how the leftist elites who occupy the perches of power think.

This fits well into the left's schemes for ruling America.  The left aims to demoralize individual conservatives by convincing them that they are a despised and isolated minority.  Because this is the heart of tactical leftism, conservatives ought to take hope from this data, which always shows that we outnumber the left. 

When Ronald Reagan died, and Americans gave this greatest conservative leader, who had been out of the public eye for more than a decade, the greatest tribute that any American president has ever received in death, the stark divide between the snarky, petty cadres who had long mocked and diminished this great man and the vast majority of America who recognized in this conservative icon the greatest American in our times was magnificently clear.  Nothing has changed.  We are the majority, the overwhelming majority, and when conservatives begin to act like that, we will begin to win the battle for the soul of our nation.

Two polls in January 2014 confirm what I have written about for quite a while: America -- and this means not just Flyover Country, but nearly all of America -- is solidly conservative.

The Battleground Poll shows that a very solid majority of Americans describe themselves as conservative.  This poll has been remarkably accurate in predicting the outcome of elections.  The internal data of the Battleground Poll, unlike many other polls, is publicly reported. 

Since 2002, there have been more than twenty Battleground Poll surveys reported by George Washington University, and the results of these polls show big swings in the support for political parties, national priorities, and policy positions.  Yet in every single case, respondents to the Battleground Poll overwhelmingly describe themselves as "conservative."

Historically, polls have seldom asked direct questions about ideology, but an interesting exception in past decades has been the American National Election Studies Data Sourcebook, published by Harvard University Press.  The 1980 edition of this publication is little more than hundreds of pages of dry data, presented without editorial opinion.  Harvard is not hotbed of conservatism.  If there were any bias, surely it would be to make conservatism look like a despised minority within American society.

The data of Table 2.22 on page 95 of the sourcebook presents the percentage of Americans who describe themselves as "liberal" and "conservative" for the four years reported: 1972 (27% conservative and 19% liberal), 1974 (26% conservative and 21% liberal), 1976 (25% conservative and 15% liberal), and 1978 (28% conservative and 20% liberal).  The data of Table 2.23 on the same page reports survey results from even-numbered years since 1964, and this data, although calibrated obscurely, shows the same preponderance of conservatives over liberals for each even numbered year from 1964 to 1978.

Recently Andrew Cuomo spoke about how conservative politicians are out of step with New York State voters.  The January 2014 Gallup Poll, which reports state-by-state how respondents identify themselves by ideology, suggests that Cuomo is wrong about his own constituents.  More New Yorkers in that poll call themselves "conservative" than "liberal."  All of the Gallup Poll results dating back to August 2009 show that more New Yorkers call themselves "conservative" than "liberal."

What is stark about this state-by-state poll is that nearly every state in the nation has more conservatives than liberals.  What follows are the poll dates and those few states in the particular poll that have more self-described liberals than self-described conservatives: August 2009 (none), February 2010 (none), August 2010 (Rhode Island), February 2011 (none), February 2012 (Massachusetts), February 2013 (Rhode Island, Massachusetts), and January 2014 (Massachusetts, Vermont, Hawaii).

SURVEY USA is a compilation of polls conducted by a number of separate media outlets in different parts of America.  In this compilation, there are a numbers of polls in recent years conducted by WABC and other affiliated New York stations, or by the Rochester Democrat Chronicle.  The latest poll is a WABC poll conducted in October 2012.  This poll reports that 25% of New Yorkers call themselves "conservative" and that an equal 25% of New Yorkers describe themselves as "liberal."  The previous five polls for the state recorded by SURVEY USA show in each poll that there are more conservatives than liberals in New York.

This ought to be very good news for conservatives in America.  Cuomo, according to polls conducted by news organizations that are not conservative at all, is wildly out of touch with the people of his state.  His remark that conservative politicians are unwelcome in New York does not reflect how ordinary New Yorkers feel, but rather how the leftist elites who occupy the perches of power think.

This fits well into the left's schemes for ruling America.  The left aims to demoralize individual conservatives by convincing them that they are a despised and isolated minority.  Because this is the heart of tactical leftism, conservatives ought to take hope from this data, which always shows that we outnumber the left. 

When Ronald Reagan died, and Americans gave this greatest conservative leader, who had been out of the public eye for more than a decade, the greatest tribute that any American president has ever received in death, the stark divide between the snarky, petty cadres who had long mocked and diminished this great man and the vast majority of America who recognized in this conservative icon the greatest American in our times was magnificently clear.  Nothing has changed.  We are the majority, the overwhelming majority, and when conservatives begin to act like that, we will begin to win the battle for the soul of our nation.

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