November 25, 2012
Whither the Republicans?
Probably the most difficult lesson for Republicans to accept from the results of the 2012 election is that this was no ordinary swing of the pendulum. Republicans entered into this race with two huge advantages. First, they were campaigning against a president presiding over a failed economy, high unemployment and mind-boggling increases in debt. Second, in this election cycle the Republicans enjoyed a large enthusiasm advantage among their base supporters and this was a turnout election. One might also mention that the Republicans fielded a highly articulate, competent candidate who in terms of sheer marketability was probably their best choice since Reagan. Because of the dismal economic conditions prevailing in the months leading up to the election, highly refined electoral college prediction models based on economic data correlated with the results of past elections forecasted an easy and decisive Romney win. The fact that prediction...(Read Full Article)